Athletic Club vs Levante Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this La Liga clash. Athletic Club, sitting 11th, welcome Levante, who are down in 19th and in a proper relegation scrap. On paper, you'd fancy the home side, especially as Levante have never beaten them in nine attempts. But football ain't played on paper, is it?

Athletic's recent form is all over the gaff. They've only won two of their last ten, but they've been in some proper ding-dongs. They nicked a 2-1 win away at Valencia in the cup just the other day, and they pulled off a cracking 3-2 win at Atalanta in Europe. The problem is, they can't keep the ball out of their own net. They've conceded a whopping 23 goals in those ten games and haven't kept a single clean sheet. Not one. At home, it's even worse: no wins in their last three, shipping two goals a game. They're like a sieve with boots on.

Levante, on the other hand, are a bit more solid at the back, conceding just over a goal a game lately. They've kept three clean sheets in their last ten. But going forward, they're a bit toothless, scoring less than a goal a game on average. Their away form is a funny one: they either win or lose, no draws in their last five on the road. They got smashed 3-0 away at Real Madrid, but then they turned over Sevilla 3-0 on their own patch. They're a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde act.

The head-to-head makes for grim reading if you're a Levante fan. Five wins for Athletic, four draws, zero wins for Levante. Athletic won the reverse fixture 2-0 back in November. So the mental edge is firmly with the hosts.

But here's the thing for us punters. Athletic's games are absolute goal fests. Both teams have scored in 9 of their last 10 matches. That's 90% of the time! Even when they win, they usually concede. Levante might not be free-scoring, but they've found the net in 7 of their last 10, and they put three past a struggling Sevilla side away from home. Against this wobbly Athletic defence, you've got to fancy they'll get a chance.

The bookies have 'Both Teams to Score - Yes' at a tasty 2.04. Given the stats, that looks like proper value to me. Athletic's defence is a charity, and Levante, with eight days' rest compared to Athletic's four, should be fresh enough to have a go.

Key Points:

Athletic Club have conceded in every one of their last 10 matches.

Both teams have scored in 9 of Athletic's last 10 games.

Levante have scored in 7 of their last 10 outings.

The visitors have never beaten Athletic in nine previous meetings.

• Athletic's home form is poor (0 wins in last 3), but they score goals (1.33 per game at home).

The Simple Verdict:

Forget the win markets, this one's all about the goals. Athletic are too generous at the back, and Levante will fancy their chances. The value shout is for both nets to bulge.

My Tip: BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE - YES