Bristol City vs Wrexham Prediction

Alright mate, fancy a flutter on the Championship? Tuesday night sees Bristol City host Wrexham in what looks a proper tight affair on paper, but I'm seeing a cracking bit of value in the away column if you don't mind me saying.

Bristol City are sitting ninth in the table with 46 points from 31 games, but their recent form's been up and down like a yo-yo. They took a proper hiding at home last month, getting walloped 5-0 by Derby – and that ain't pretty for the home fans. Mind you, they did bounce back with a 3-2 win at Hull and smashed Watford 5-1 in the cup, so they can certainly find the net at Ashton Gate, averaging 2.40 goals per game in their last five home outings. But defensively? They've been leaking 1.60 per game at home, which gives the visitors a sniff.

Now then, Wrexham are the lads in form. They're one point above City in eighth with 47 points, and their away record is nothing short of sensational – four wins from four on the road, scoring two goals a game and keeping things tight at the back with just 0.75 conceded per game. They've won at Derby, Blackburn, QPR and Sheffield Wednesday recently, and they even knocked Ipswich out the cup at the weekend with a 1-0 win. That's promotion form, that is.

The only meeting between these two this season saw Wrexham win 2-0 back in November, and with the bookies offering 3.40 for an away win here, I reckon that's a gift. Bristol City's home advantage is real – they've won 60% of their last five at home – but that 5-0 drubbing shows they can collapse, and Wrexham's momentum is undeniable.

Key Points:

• Wrexham have won their last four away games in the league, scoring 2.00 goals per game

• Bristol City conceded five at home to Derby recently, showing defensive frailties

• The reverse fixture ended 2-0 to Wrexham earlier this season

• Both teams average 1.60 goals per game over their last ten matches

Summary: Wrexham are flying on the road and the 3.40 looks too big for a side that's won four straight away and sits above Bristol in the table. I'm backing the away win.