Levante vs Real Sociedad Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this La Liga clash. On paper, it's a proper relegation six-pointer, but the form book tells a very different story. Levante are rock bottom, with just two wins all season and a measly nine points. Real Sociedad aren't setting the world alight in 15th, but they've got more than double the points and, crucially, they've remembered how to win football matches lately.

Let's start with the home side. Levante are having a proper nightmare. In their last ten games, they've won just twice, and those were against lower-league sides in the Copa del Rey. In the league, it's one draw and a string of losses. At home, it's even grimmer: no wins in their last three, scoring a pathetic 0.33 goals per game. They did manage a 0-0 draw with a very good Villarreal side last time out, which shows they can dig in, but before that it was losses to Athletic Club (0-2) and Celta Vigo (1-2). They just can't find the net.

Now, over to the visitors. Real Sociedad have won six of their last ten, and their away form is the real eye-opener. They've won four of their last six on the road, scoring nearly two goals a game (1.83) and conceding less than one (0.67). We're talking about proper away wins too: 3-1 at Osasuna, 2-1 at Eldense in the cup, and a 3-0 thumping of SD Negreira. They've had a couple of wobbles, losing at Alaves (1-0) and at home to Girona (1-2), but overall, they're a team with momentum, especially when they leave their own patch.

The head-to-head is fairly even, with Sociedad just edging it with four wins to Levante's three. But that's history. The here and now is all about current form, and Sociedad are streets ahead. Levante's attack is blunt, averaging just 0.8 goals a game, while Sociedad's defence on the road is solid. Sociedad also dominate the ball more (51% possession to 42%) and get more shots on target.

So, what's the bet? The bookies have Sociedad at 2.20 to win. To me, that's a bit of value. Given the massive gulf in recent results and the contrasting home/away trends, I fancy the visitors to come away with all three points. Levante might keep it tight for a while, but Sociedad's quality and confidence should tell in the end.

Key Points:

Levante are 20th, with the worst record in La Liga.

At home, Levante have failed to win in their last three, scoring just once.

Real Sociedad have won 66.7% of their last six away games.

Sociedad average 1.83 goals per game on their travels.

• The head-to-head record is close, but current form heavily favours the visitors.

The Simple Verdict: All the numbers point one way. Levante are struggling for goals and wins, while Real Sociedad are a team in decent nick, particularly away from home. The price on the away win is too good to ignore. Back Sociedad to do the business.