Pisa vs Sassuolo Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this one. Pisa versus Sassuolo. On the face of it, it's not exactly the Milan derby, is it? We've got the league's bottom side hosting a team floating in mid-table but with the travel sickness of a bloke who's lost his passport. This has 'cagey' written all over it.

First up, Pisa. Blimey, it's been a tough old season. One win in twenty-two? That's the stuff of nightmares. They're rooted to 19th with just 14 points. Their recent form makes for grim reading: no wins in their last ten, shipping goals left, right, and centre – 21 conceded in that run. They got a proper hiding from Inter, losing 6-2 just last week. But, and it's a big but, they've shown they can dig in for a point lately. They've drawn four of their last ten, including 1-1 with a decent Atalanta side and 2-2 with Udinese. The problem is at home. They've not won any of their last five at their own gaff, scoring a measly one goal in those five games. One! That's an attack colder than a winter's day in January.

Then you've got Sassuolo. Sitting 11th, they're 12 points better off, so you'd fancy them, right? Not so fast. Their away form is diabolical. No wins in their last five on the road. They've lost at Napoli, Roma, and Juventus, which is fair enough, but also at Torino and Como. They did manage a brilliant 2-2 draw at AC Milan, which shows they've got something in the locker, but consistency is not their friend. They score even less than Pisa on their travels – just 0.60 goals per game in their last ten away.

When these two have met, it's been close. The head-to-head reads one win each and a draw from three games. The last meeting finished 2-2, and when Pisa hosted Sassuolo before that, they won 3-1. So there's no fear factor for the home side here.

So what's gonna happen? Both teams can't buy a win in these circumstances. Pisa can't win at home, Sassuolo can't win away. Both attacks are about as potent as a watered-down lager. Pisa averages 0.8 goals a game, Sassuolo the same. Pisa's defence is leakier, but Sassuolo doesn't have the firepower to exploit it regularly on the road.

Looking at the recent scorelines, a pattern emerges. Pisa's last ten games have seen six finish with under 2.5 goals. Sassuolo's last ten away? Also six unders. When you put two low-scoring, struggling sides together, you don't often get a goal fest. The bookies have the goal expectancy at just over two goals combined, which screams 'unders' to me.

The odds for Under 2.5 goals are sitting at 1.67. It might not be a price that gets the heart racing, but sometimes the smart money is on the boring bet. With both teams desperate not to lose, and neither prolific in front of goal, this has 1-1 or 1-0 written all over it.

Key Points:

Pisa are winless in 10, with a 0% home win rate in their last 5 at home.

Sassuolo are winless in their last 5 away games (0% win rate).

Both teams average only 0.8 goals scored per game over their last 10.

6 of Pisa's last 10 matches, and 6 of Sassuolo's last 10 away matches, have seen Under 2.5 goals.

• The last head-to-head meeting ended in a 2-2 draw.

Summary: This is a proper six-pointer down at the bottom. Expect a nervy, tight affair with chances at a premium. Neither side inspires confidence to win, so the draw is tempting, but the value and higher confidence lie in the goal market. With two blunt attacks and plenty at stake, backing Under 2.5 Goals is the sensible shout.