QPR vs Hull City Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this one. QPR are having a right old time of it at the moment, sitting 16th in the table and looking about as convincing as a chocolate teapot at home. Their recent form reads like a proper horror story - three wins, three draws, and four losses in their last ten, with a measly 1.20 points per game.

The R's home form is particularly worrying. Just a 20% win rate in their last five at their own patch, scoring only 0.8 goals per game. They've been shipping them in too - 1.6 goals conceded per game at home. Recent results don't make for pretty reading: a 1-4 thumping by Ipswich, a 1-2 loss to Southampton, and they could only manage a goalless draw against rock-bottom Sheffield United.

Now Hull City, that's a different kettle of fish entirely. They're sitting pretty in 5th place with 25 points, and their recent form is top-notch. Six wins, two draws, and just two losses in their last ten gives them a cracking 2.00 points per game average. They're banging them in too - 1.9 goals per game compared to QPR's pathetic 0.8.

On their travels, Hull have been decent enough - winning half of their last four away games and scoring 1.75 goals per game away from home. They might have lost 2-1 at Derby in their last away game, but before that they put two past Norwich without reply.

Head-to-head, it's pretty even between these two - four wins each and one draw from nine meetings. But form counts for everything in this game, and right now there's only one team playing with any confidence.

The bookies have got QPR as slight favorites at 2.05, which seems a bit generous to me given how poor they've been at home. Hull are 3.40 to win, and that looks like it might have a bit of value about it.

When you look at the stats, Hull are scoring nearly twice as many goals as QPR, have double the points per game, and are facing a team that's won just one of their last five at home. Sometimes you've got to follow the form, and right now the form is all pointing one way.

Key Points:

• QPR have won just 20% of their last 5 home games

• Hull City are scoring 1.9 goals per game vs QPR's 0.8

• Hull have 6 more points than QPR despite playing same number of games

• QPR have conceded 1.6 goals per game at home this season

• Hull have won 60% of their last 10 games compared to QPR's 30%

Summary: Look, I'm not one to overcomplicate things. Hull are playing better football, scoring more goals, and have much better form. QPR are struggling at home and can't buy a goal. The odds of 3.40 for an away win look too good to turn down here.