MVV vs Willem II Prediction

Baie dankie for joining me, Pajimon, for this Eerste Divisie clash! We are looking at MVV versus Willem II on March 22, 2026.

First things first: where is the meat? Willem II is sitting pretty in 4th place with 50 points, while MVV is struggling at 15th with 36 points. The form gap is massive. Willem II has won 6 of their last 10 games, scoring 1.8 goals per game. MVV has only 2 wins in their last 10, and they haven't kept a single clean sheet in that period. That is a lot of goals conceded!

Look at the numbers: MVV concedes 2.0 goals per game away and 1.6 at home. Willem II scores 2.0 goals per game away. The head-to-head record shows Willem II with 2 wins to MVV's 1 win in their last 5 meetings. The last time they met ended 2-2, but Willem II has been the stronger side recently.

Odds are offering 1.70 for an Away Win. The implied probability is around 58%, but based on the standings and goal stats, I put the chance higher, around 65%. That gives us positive expected value. We don't want vegetables here; we want the meat!

Key Points:

• Willem II is 4th, MVV is 15th.

• Willem II: 60% win rate in last 10 games.

• MVV: 0% clean sheet rate in last 10 games.

• H2H favors Willem II.

• Value found on the Away Win at 1.70.

Summary: The stats point to Willem II taking the three points.