Santos vs Vitoria Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this bottom-of-the-table clash. Santos are 16th with 31 points, Vitoria are 17th with 28 - just three points separating these two in the relegation dogfight. This is exactly the sort of game where someone's season gets saved or sunk.

Santos have been a proper mixed bag lately. They had a brilliant 3-1 win against Corinthians, but also got absolutely hammered 0-6 by Vasco. That's the problem with this side - you never know which Santos will turn up. At home, they're averaging exactly a goal per game, which isn't exactly setting the world alight.

But Vitoria away from home? Now that's a different story altogether. They've lost their last FIVE away games on the spin, and get this - they're conceding 3.8 goals per game on their travels! Three. Point. Eight. That's not just bad, that's relegation-form bad. They shipped eight against Flamengo and four against Vasco in recent away trips. Their defence is about as solid as a chocolate teapot.

The head-to-head is massively in Santos' favour too - eight wins out of nine meetings, including all five away matches. Santos just seem to have Vitoria's number.

Now, when you've got a team conceding nearly four goals per game away from home, and the bookies are offering 2.10 for over 2.5 goals... well, my ears prick up. The goal expectancy suggests 3.6 goals in this match, and frankly, given Vitoria's defensive shambles on the road, that might be conservative.

Santos might not be world-beaters, but even they should be able to put a few past this Vitoria side when they're playing at home. And with Vitoria needing to push for points in a relegation battle, they'll likely leave gaps at the back.

Key Points:

• Vitoria concede 3.8 goals per away game - absolutely dreadful

• Santos have won 8 of 9 head-to-head meetings

• Vitoria have lost their last 5 away matches

• Goal expectancy suggests 3.6 goals in this match

• Both teams are in relegation trouble, so expect an open game

Sometimes the stats just scream at you, and this is one of those times. Vitoria's away defence is so leaky that goals look inevitable here.