Preview
Mr SimpleRight, so we've got Finn Harps at home against Bray Wanderers on 16 October, and if you've been following the form book, this one looks like it's heading in one direction.
Finn Harps are in a bit of a mess. They've lost their last four games — scored just two goals in those four and conceded seven. In their last ten matches across all venues, they've managed one win from ten, sitting on 0.3 points per game. At home over 20 games, they've won 5, drawn 4 and lost 11, conceding 1.6 per game. In their last five, they've failed to score in two of them and haven't kept a clean sheet once. The 0–1 loss to Longford Town on 18 September at home and the 1–2 defeat to Kerry on 2 October really sum up where they're at.
Bray Wanderers, on the other hand, are in a different world. Three wins from their last five, including a 3–1 away at UCD and a 2–0 at home to Treaty United. Over their last ten, they've won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3, scoring 1.9 per game and conceding just 1.5. On the road over 20 away games, they've won 6, drawn 4 and lost 10, scoring 1.25 per game. They've failed to score in only 4 of those 20 away trips.
Now, the head-to-head tells a pretty clear story. In the last four meetings within the past year, Bray won two — a 5–0 thrashing at their own ground in August and a 1–0 away win at Finn Harps in July (that was in the FAI Cup). Finn Harps did grab a 2–1 at home back in May, and there was a 2–2 at Bray in April, but the pattern is clear. At Finn Harps' ground specifically, the two recent meetings went 0–1 and 2–1 — one win for each side, but the 0–1 came most recently.
The counter-argument? Well, Finn Harps did beat Bray at home in May, and Bray did lose 1–4 to Cobh Ramblers at home two weeks ago. Home advantage is real, and Finn Harps have won 5 of their 20 home games. But when your team has lost four in a row and scored two in those four, home advantage starts to look a bit thin.
Key Points:
- Finn Harps have lost their last 4 games, scoring just 2 and conceding 7
- Bray Wanderers have won 3 of their last 5 and 4 of their last 10
- In the last 4 recent meetings, Bray won 2 (5–0 and 0–1)
- Bray's away record (6W 4D 10L) edges out Finn Harps' home record (5W 4D 11L)
- Finn Harps have failed to score in 8 of their last 20 home games
So here's the call: Bray Wanderers to win. The form gap is too big to ignore, the head-to-head backs it up, and the Wanderers' away numbers say they're comfortable on the road. I'm going with the away win at 1.43.