Hertha BSC vs VfL Bochum Prediction

Alright, settle in with your pint, because this Saturday evening clash in the 2. Bundesliga has got 'stalemate' written all over it if you ask me. Hertha BSC host VfL Bochum, and on paper it looks like the Berlin boys should be favourites – they're sixth in the table, eight points clear of Bochum, and playing at the Olympiastadion. But hold your horses, because the numbers tell a very different story.

Let's start with Hertha. They've been about as consistent as a dodgy Wi-Fi signal at home lately. In their last six home matches, they've only managed one win – that's a measly 16.67% win rate, mate. They've been drawing half of them and losing the rest. Sure, they just nicked a 2-1 win away at Preußen Münster and beat Nürnberg 2-1 at home before that, but let's not forget they got absolutely battered 5-2 by Paderborn and lost 3-2 to Hannover in their own backyard recently. They're scoring 1.33 goals per game at home but leaking 1.50 at the other end. Not exactly fortress Berlin, is it?

Now, Bochum. These lot are the draw merchants of the division. Unbeaten in their last six league games, which sounds brilliant until you realise three of them were draws. In fact, they've drawn six of their last ten matches overall. They don't know how to lose lately – except they don't know how to win away either. Their last three away games? All draws. Two-thirds of their recent travels end in a share of the spoils. They just beat Kaiserslautern 3-2 at home, but before that it was five draws on the spin including a 0-0 with Paderborn and 1-1s with Elversberg and Münster.

The head-to-head makes interesting reading too. Bochum won the reverse fixture 3-2 earlier this season, and while Hertha have the better overall record, at home against Bochum they've only won one of three, drawing the other two. Both teams have been finding the net regularly – Hertha's seen BTTS in 70% of recent games, Bochum in 80% – but the bookies have latched onto that with BTTS Yes priced at 1.50, which is actually poor value compared to the fair probability of around 62.5%.

Here's the rub: Hertha are priced at 2.00 to win, which implies they've got a 50% chance. With that home record? Not a chance, sunshine. Bochum at 3.20 is tempting given their unbeaten run, but they haven't won away in their last three attempts. That leaves us with the draw at 3.60, and this is where my eyes light up. When you've got a home side drawing 50% of home games against an away side drawing 66% of away games, the maths starts adding up. Both teams are solid enough not to get beaten, but neither is clinical enough to close it out.

Key Points:

• Hertha have won just 1 of their last 6 home matches (16.67% win rate)

• Bochum are unbeaten in 6 league games but have drawn 6 of their last 10 overall

• Bochum have drawn 2 of their last 3 away games (66.67% draw rate away)

• The reverse fixture ended 3-2 to Bochum earlier this season

• Hertha's home games average 2.83 goals per game, Bochum's away games average 2.33

• Both teams have high BTTS rates (70% Hertha, 80% Bochum) but odds offer no value

Summary: This has draw written all over it. Hertha can't be trusted at evens with that home form, and while Bochum are tough to beat, they don't win on the road often enough. The 3.60 on the stalemate is the value play here – grab it before the pubs fill up.