Preview
Hartford Athletic are at home on 17 October to take on Brooklyn in the USL Championship, and if you've been keeping an eye on Brooklyn's last few outings, you'll know this is the sort of game where the scoreboard doesn't stay quiet for long.
Brooklyn have lost their last three games, and the scores are a bit of a horror show: 1–3 at home to Rhode Island, 1–3 at home to Detroit City, and 0–4 on the road to Birmingham Legion. That's 10 goals conceded in three matches and just two scored. Their last five games have all finished with three or more goals on the board, and their away record over 15 games shows 12 of those 15 went over 2.5. They're conceding 2.47 per game on the road and managing just 1.07 in front. That's a team that's leaking like a sieve and struggling to find the net.
Hartford Athletic haven't won in their last five — three draws and two losses — but their home record over 20 games is a different beast: 8 wins, 8 draws, 4 losses. They score 1.35 per game at home and concede 1.2. Not a side that's lighting fires, but a team that gets the job done at home. And when these two have met before, it's been Hartford's day: both of the two recent meetings at Brooklyn's ground ended with Hartford winning, 2–0 and 2–1.
Now, the counter-argument is fair enough. Hartford's recent form is flat. Three draws in five, a 0–1 loss to Louisville City at home, a 1–2 defeat at Pittsburgh. They're not in the form of their lives. And the head-to-head is only two games, both at Brooklyn's ground, so it doesn't directly tell us what happens at Hartford's end. Plus, Hartford's last five had only two games over 2.5, so they're not exactly a high-scoring side at the moment.
But when you put it all together, the numbers don't lie. Brooklyn away are conceding at a rate that makes your eyes water, and Hartford at home are a side that finds the net consistently. The combination of a defence that's been torn apart on the road and a home side that scores 1.35 per game points to goals. You don't need to be a mathematician to see that.
Key Points:
- Brooklyn have lost their last three, conceding 10 goals in the process
- All five of Brooklyn's last matches went over 2.5 goals
- Brooklyn's away record: 12 of 15 games over 2.5, 2.47 goals conceded per game
- Hartford's home record: 8W 8D 4L in 20 games, scoring 1.35 per game
- Both recent head-to-head meetings ended with a Hartford win
My pick: over 2.5 goals at 1.55.
