Preview
Right, so we've got IFK Norrkoping hosting Orebro SK on 20 October, and if you've been following the Superettan, the numbers here are doing a lot of the talking for us.
IFK Norrkoping at home are absolutely cooking. Over their last 20 home games, they've won 14, drawn 4 and lost just 2. That's 2.3 points per game, scoring 2.15 a match and conceding a mere 0.55. Fourteen clean sheets in twenty home games โ that's a proper wall, not a team. And their last five across all grounds? Three wins, two draws, no losses. Nine goals scored, one conceded. They smashed GIF Sundsvall 4-0 at home just seven days ago, and before that they were 3-1 up at Osters IF and 2-0 up at Varbergs BoIS. The two 0-0 draws against Kalmar FF and Oddevold are the only blemish, but even those kept the sheet clean.
Now look at Orebro SK on the road. Twenty away games, and they've won 5, drawn 6 and lost 9. That's 1.05 points per game, and they're conceding 1.8 a match. Five clean sheets in twenty away games. Their last five overall is one win, three draws and a loss, and they've drawn their last two โ 1-1 at Ljungskile and 1-1 at United Nordic. The real blemish in their recent run was that 2-4 defeat at Sandviken four weeks ago, which showed just how thin their away defence can be.
The head-to-head here is a bit of a mixed bag. The only meeting within the last 12 months was back in April at Orebro's ground, where they edged it 2-1. But go back further and IFK Norrkoping won all three older meetings at this venue โ 4-2, 3-0, 1-0, and even the reverse fixture in 2021 was a 0-3 away win for Norrkoping. Those older games are historical, sure, but they paint a picture of a team that has dominated this fixture at home for years.
The counter-argument? Well, Orebro have scored in all their last five matches, so they're not a team that sits back and folds. And that April meeting showed they can handle IFK Norrkoping in a competitive setting. Plus, two 0-0 draws in IFK Norrkoping's last five suggests they can go quiet at home. But honestly, that's a thin reed when you're up against a side that's won 14 of their last 20 at home and conceded just 11 goals in that span.
The market has IFK Norrkoping at 1.79 for the win, which prices them at about 56%. I'd put their chance a touch higher than that, closer to 63%, given the gulf in home and away records and the recent form on both sides. The numbers don't lie here.
Key Points:
- IFK Norrkoping: 14W 4D 2L in 20 home games, 2.15 scored per game, 0.55 conceded
- Orebro SK: 5W 6D 9L in 20 away games, 1.8 conceded per game
- IFK Norrkoping last 5: 3W 2D 0L, 9 scored, 1 conceded
- Orebro SK last 5: 1W 3D 1L, drawing their last two
- Only recent H2H (April, at Orebro's ground): 2-1 to Orebro
My pick: IFK Norrkoping home win at 1.79.
