Saint Etienne vs Clermont Foot Prediction

Right then, let's talk about the Friday night Ligue 2 clash that's got my attention. Saint Etienne, sitting pretty in 4th, welcome Clermont Foot, who are languishing down in 11th. On paper, it's a home banker, but as we know, football's not played on paper. It's played on grass, often in the rain, and I've got a feeling this one could be a bit of a goalfest.

Let's start with the hosts, Saint Etienne. Blimey, have you seen their home form? In their last four games at their gaff, they've been scoring for fun – an average of over five goals a game! That's not a typo. Five. Point. Two. Five. They smashed PAU 6-0, put two past Nancy, and even stuck eleven past Ecotay Moingt in the cup. Sure, they've had a couple of wobbles recently – a dull 0-0 draw with Le Mans and a 2-2 draw with bottom-side Bastia – but when they're at home, they're a different animal. They're averaging nearly three goals a game over their last ten, and they love having the ball, with 67% possession at home. They're a proper attacking force.

Now, Clermont Foot. They're the sort of side that can be a right pain to break down away from home. They've only lost 40% of their last five on the road, but here's the rub: they only win 20% of them. They're scraping draws and nicking the odd win, like their 1-0 victory at Guingamp. The problem is goals. Or lack of them. They average a measly 0.8 goals per game away. They're tidy at the back, conceding just one a game on their travels, but can they keep out this Saint Etienne attack? I have my doubts.

The head-to-head makes for good reading if you're a Saint Etienne fan. They've won four of the last six meetings, including a 2-1 win earlier this season. What's more, five of those six games saw both teams score, and four had over 2.5 goals. When these two meet, it tends to be eventful.

So, what's the bet? The bookies have Saint Etienne at 1.44 to win. That's short, maybe too short for a side whose overall form has been a bit up and down. The value, for me, lies in the goals market. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.57. Given Saint Etienne's home games are averaging over six total goals, and Clermont's away games are around 1.8, the maths points to goals. Even if Clermont park the bus, Saint Etienne have shown they can score three on their own. I fancy they'll do just that.

Key Points:

Saint Etienne are scoring an incredible 5.25 goals per game at home recently.

Clermont Foot struggle for goals away, averaging just 0.8 per game.

The head-to-head history heavily favours Saint Etienne (4 wins in 6) and usually produces goals (Over 2.5 in 4 of last 6).

Saint Etienne's recent home form includes a 6-0 win and an 11-1 cup victory.

• Clermont are tough to beat away but lack the firepower to outscore a rampant home attack.

Summary: This has all the makings of a Saint Etienne-dominated affair. Clermont might keep it tight for a while, but the sheer weight of attacking pressure from the home side should tell. I'm not touching the short home win price, but the value screams for goals. Back Over 2.5 Goals at a nice price.