Barnet vs Crawley Town Prediction

Right then, let's talk about the New Year's Day fixture down at Barnet. It's a proper League Two clash between a side who love a draw and a side who can't buy a win on the road. On paper, it looks straightforward, but the numbers tell a funnier story.

Barnet are sitting pretty in 13th, ten points and a whole lot of goal difference better off than Crawley Town down in 20th. But don't let that fool you into thinking the Bees are flying – they've only won one of their last ten! The thing is, they've drawn six of them. They're the king of the single point. Look at who they've shared the spoils with: a 0-0 at Cambridge United (who are no mugs), a 1-1 with Gillingham, and a 2-2 with high-flying MK Dons. When they do win, they do it in style – a 4-0 demolition of Bristol Rovers. At home, they average two goals a game. Two! That's a proper threat.

Now, Crawley Town. Bless 'em. They've also only won one in ten, but their problem is at the back, especially when they travel. They've lost three of their last four away games, shipping three at Bromley and four at Salford City. On average, they're conceding two and a half goals every time they step on someone else's patch. They do score though – 1.5 a game away from home – so they're not coming just for a 0-0. Their games are eventful; both teams have scored in 8 of their last 10.

So what's gonna happen? Barnet score loads at home. Crawley concede loads away. Crawley score a bit away. Barnet concede a bit at home. Do the maths, mate. That screams goals. The bookies have the 'Over 2.5 Goals' price at 1.70, which basically says there's a better than even chance. I think the chance is much higher.

Head-to-head? Ancient history, last time they met was 2018. Forget it. This is about current form. Barnet will fancy this at home against a struggling side. They might even win, and at 1.53 that's probably a fair shout. But the safer, juicier value is in the goals market. With Barnet's 2.0 home goals and Crawley's 2.5 away goals conceded, just adding those up gets you to 4.5 on average! Even if Barnet have a rare off day, Crawley's defence is likely to gift them something.

Key Points:

Barnet are draw specialists (6 in last 10) but score 2.0 goals per game at home.

Crawley Town have lost 3 of their last 4 away, conceding 2.5 goals per game on the road.

Crawley's games see both teams score 80% of the time.

The goal expectancy models point to a high-scoring affair (around 3.75 total goals).

• Barnet's last home game was a 4-0 win; Crawley's last away game was a 3-1 loss.

All signs point to the net bulging more than twice. It's New Year's Day – let's hope for some fireworks on the pitch. The smart money here is on the goals flowing.