SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg Prediction

Right then, Friday night lights in the 2. Bundesliga and we've got a right interesting one here. Fourth-placed SV Elversberg hosting 17th-placed 1. FC Magdeburg. On paper, that's a mismatch, but this is German football we're talking about – nothing's ever that simple!

Elversberg are having a cracking season, sitting pretty in the promotion mix with 45 points from 24 games. They've won five of their last ten, including a solid 3-1 victory over Eintracht Braunschweig last time out at home. But here's the thing – while they're banging in goals for fun on the road (2.5 per game away), they've been a bit more reserved at home, averaging just 1.25 goals per game in their last four at the Waldstadion. Still, they put three past Braunschweig and beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-0 before that, so they know how to grind it out.

Now, Magdeburg. Blimey, what a season they're having – and not in a good way. Stuck in the relegation zone with just 23 points, and they've lost their last three on the bounce (1-3 vs Karlsruhe, 3-5 at Schalke, 0-2 vs Bielefeld). But – and this is a big but – they cannot stop scoring! Nine goals in those three defeats. They're averaging 2.3 goals per game over the last ten, and away from home, they've been lethal, netting 3.5 goals per game in their last four road trips. They beat Greuther Fürth 5-4 and Kaiserslautern 3-2 away recently. Defensively? About as solid as a paper umbrella in a hurricane, conceding 2.3 per game.

When these two met earlier this season, Elversberg absolutely battered them 4-0. But historically, Magdeburg have been a bit of a bogey team for Elversberg at home – the hosts have never actually beaten Magdeburg on their own patch in the last five meetings (0 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss at home).

So what have we got? A promotion-chasing side with decent home form against a relegation-battling side who can't defend but can't stop scoring either. The goal expectancies here are through the roof – we're looking at over 4 goals expected in this match based on recent attacking output. Both teams have seen BTTS in 80% of their last ten games, and neither has kept more than one clean sheet in that run.

Key Points:

• Elversberg are 4th in the table (45 points), Magdeburg are 17th (23 points)

• Magdeburg have lost their last 3 league games but scored 9 goals in the process

• Elversberg have won 5 of their last 10, including a 3-1 win over Braunschweig last home game

• Magdeburg have won 75% of their last 4 away games, scoring 3.5 goals per game on the road

• Both teams average over 2 goals scored per game in their last 10 matches

• Neither side has kept more than 1 clean sheet in their last 10 games

• The reverse fixture ended 4-0 to Elversberg earlier this season

Summary:

Look, I fancy Elversberg to get the win here – they're the better side and Magdeburg are leaking goals like a sieve. But at 1.85, there's not enough meat on the bone for me to recommend the home win with Magdeburg's away scoring record. Instead, I'm heading to the goals market. With both teams averaging over 2 goals a game and neither able to defend, this has got a shootout written all over it. Over 2.5 goals at 1.53 is the play – I reckon there's a 68% chance we see at least three goals here, which gives us a nice edge on the bookies' price.