Preview
Mr SimpleAlright, gather round! Mr Simple's got a cracker from the French Riviera this Saturday evening as Monaco host Angers. Now, I know what you're thinking - 'Monaco at 1.50, that's skinny as a rake!' - but hear me out, because the numbers are singing louder than the choir at Stade Louis II.
Let's start with the home side. These lads have been mixing it with the elite lately and coming out smelling of roses. They just went to second-placed Lens - who've been flying with 2.70 points per game recently - and came away with a cracking 3-2 win. That's no mean feat! And before that? They absolutely battered Rennes 4-0 at home. When Monaco turn up, they turn up. Even in Europe, they held a strong Juventus side to a 0-0 draw and only lost narrowly 2-3 to PSG. They're sitting pretty in 8th with 34 points and their home form is solid - 2.25 goals per game in their last four at the Stade Louis II.
Now look at Angers. Bless 'em, they're struggling away from home something chronic. We're talking 0.25 goals per game on their travels - that's one goal every four games! They've got zero wins in their last four away days and failed to score in three of them. They just lost 1-0 at home to a Lille side that's been proper poor recently (managing just 0.50 points per game), and before that got turned over 2-0 by Lorient. When you can't beat a struggling Lille at home, you've got no business expecting points at Monaco.
The history books don't make pretty reading for the visitors either. Monaco have won 7 of the last 9 meetings between these two, including 3 out of 4 at home. The last time they met in October it was a 1-1 draw, but before that Monaco had won four on the bounce including a 2-0 and a 2-1.
The goal expectancies tell the story too - Monaco are expected to bag around 1.62 goals while Angers are looking at just 0.62. With Angers' attack stiffer than a board and Monaco's defence keeping clean sheets in 50% of recent home games, this has home win written all over it.
Key Points:
• Monaco have won 3 of their last 4 home games, scoring 9 goals (2.25 per game)
• Angers have 0 wins in their last 4 away games, scoring just 1 goal (0.25 per game)
• Monaco just beat 2nd-placed Lens 3-2 away and thrashed Rennes 4-0 at home
• Angers lost 1-0 at home to struggling Lille (0.50 PPG recently) last time out
• Head-to-head: Monaco have won 75% of home meetings vs Angers
• Monaco's goals scored trend is improving while Angers' is declining
Look, 1.50 isn't going to buy you a yacht, but it's a proper banker. Monaco are flying at home against a side that can't buy a goal away from home. The value's there - I'm estimating a 70% chance of a Monaco win when the bookies are implying 67%. Get on the home win and thank me later.