Antalyaspor vs Istanbul Basaksehir Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Turkish tussle between two sides who've been struggling more than a one-legged man in an arse-kicking contest.

Antalyaspor are sitting 10th in the table with 10 points, and frankly, their recent form has been about as convincing as a politician's promise. They've lost 6 of their last 10 matches, including a right hammering 5-2 at home to Rizespor and a 3-2 loss to Gazişehir Gaziantep. They're scoring 1.1 goals per game but letting in 1.8, which is the kind of defensive record that keeps managers awake at night.

But here's the thing - they're at home, and historically, they've never lost to Basaksehir on their own patch. That's 4 matches, 2 wins and 2 draws. Not bad, eh?

Now, Basaksehir are having an even worse time of it. They're down in 16th with just 7 points, and their away form is absolutely shocking. Just one win in their last 10, and they can't score for toffee - only 0.8 goals per game on the road. They did keep a clean sheet against Rizespor in their last match, but before that they were getting beaten by Galatasaray, Goztepe, and Konyaspor.

The bookies have got Basaksehir as favorites at 2.25, which seems a bit rich given they've won about as many away games as I've won the lottery. Antalyaspor are 3.10 for the home win, which looks like it might have a bit of value about it.

Both teams tend to concede, and both teams score in 60% of their matches, so we could be in for a few goals. But with Antalyaspor's decent home record against these lot and Basaksehir's travel sickness, I'm fancying the home side to nick it.

Key Points:

• Antalyaspor have never lost at home to Basaksehir (2W, 2D)

• Basaksehir have a shocking 16.67% away win rate

• Antalyaspor score 1.1 goals per game, Basaksehir only 0.8 away from home

• Both teams have been leaking goals lately

• The odds of 3.10 for a home win look decent value

Given the head-to-head record and Basaksehir's woeful away form, I'm backing Antalyaspor to get the job done at home. The value looks too good to ignore.