Alaves vs Girona Prediction

Alright, gather round the bar, lads. We've got a proper Monday night scrap in La Liga between Alaves and Girona, and I’m telling you now, the bookies have got this one arse-about-face.

Alaves are sitting 14th in the table, just three points above the drop zone if you squint hard enough, and they’ve been about as consistent as a dodgy Wi-Fi signal. Their last ten games? Three wins, five losses, and a couple of draws chucked in for good measure. Sure, they turned over Real Betis and Espanyol at home recently, but then they went and got turned over 2-0 by a Getafe side that’s been struggling to hit a barn door (0.40 points per game in their last ten, mate – that’s proper relegation form). They followed that up with a 1-1 draw against a Sevilla team that’s also been stinking the place out. At home, they’re winning 40% of the time, but they’re shipping 1.4 goals a game in front of their own fans. Not exactly fortress territory, is it?

Now, let’s talk about Girona. These lads are 12th, three points clear of Alaves, and they come into this one flying higher than a kite in a hurricane. They just went and beat Barcelona 2-1! That’s not a typo, mate – they took down the second-best team in the league who’ve been averaging 2.4 points per game. That’s the kind of result that puts hairs on your chest. They’ve won five of their last ten, including cracking away days at Espanyol, Mallorca, and Real Sociedad. Their away record is bang on – 50% win rate on the road – and they’ve already done Alaves this season, winning the reverse fixture 1-0 back in November.

Looking at the head-to-head, Girona have the edge with four wins to Alaves’ two in the last nine meetings. Even at Alaves’ gaff, it’s been tight (one win each, two draws), so it’s not like Girona are walking into the lion’s den here – more like a slightly annoyed cat’s basket.

Here’s where it gets tasty for us punters. The bookies have Alaves as favourites at 2.30, which is taking the mickey given their recent form. Girona are a whopping 3.50 to win this – that’s implying they’ve got less than a 30% chance of winning. After they’ve just beaten Barcelona and are picking up points for fun? Pull the other one, it’s got bells on.

The goal expectancies suggest a tight game (around 1.28 goals each), and both teams have been involved in their fair share of unders recently, but at 1.53, there’s no value in backing the under. Similarly, Both Teams to Score at evens doesn’t get me excited when the maths suggest it’s basically a coin flip.

Key Points:

• Girona just beat Barcelona 2-1 and are in far better form (5 wins in last 10 vs Alaves’ 3)

• Alaves lost 2-0 at home to struggling Getafe recently – their home form is patchy at best

• Girona have a 50% away win rate and have already beaten Alaves 1-0 this season

• The 3.50 odds on Girona imply a 28.6% win chance – underestimating their current level significantly

• Alaves’ recent wins came against decent sides (Betis, Espanyol) but they’re inconsistent

Summary:

I’m steering well clear of the home win here – 2.30 is a joke price for a side that’s lost five of their last ten. The draw at 3.00 is fair but doesn’t set my world on fire. The value is all over Girona at 3.50. They’re playing with confidence, they’ve got the measure of Alaves already this season, and that away record is solid. Have a nibble on the away win – it’s too big to ignore.