Cadiz vs Almeria Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Segunda División tussle between Cadiz and Almeria. It's a classic mid-table meet-up with a bit of spice, and if the history books are anything to go by, we could be in for a treat.

Cadiz are sitting 11th, five points behind their visitors who are flying a bit higher in 4th. But don't let that fool you – form is what matters on the night, and both of these sides have been about as consistent as a chocolate teapot lately. Cadiz have lost their last three on the bounce, including a 1-0 defeat to Huesca and a 1-2 home loss to Granada. They're scoring at home – a healthy 2.00 goals per game in their last four – but they're leaking them just as fast, conceding 1.75 per game. One clean sheet in ten tells you all you need to know about their backline.

Almeria, meanwhile, are coming off a cracking 4-2 win over AD Ceuta. But before you get carried away, their away form reads like a horror story: just one win in their last five on the road, with defeats to the likes of Eibar and Malaga. They score a respectable 1.20 away from home but let in 1.60. Sound familiar? It's the same story – they can't keep the door shut either, with just one clean sheet in ten.

Now, here's the juicy bit. When these two get together, they usually forget how to defend. In the last nine meetings, both teams have scored in eight of them. Eight! The last time they played, back in November, Almeria ran out 3-0 winners. The average goals in this fixture is a chunky three per game. With both sides averaging over 1.5 goals scored and conceded per game recently, all the signs point to goals at both ends.

The stats back it up too. Cadiz at home average 13 shots and 4.75 on target. Almeria away are even more trigger-happy, with 16 shots and 6 on target per game. They like to have the ball (54% possession away), which could leave space for Cadiz to hit them on the break. It's got all the ingredients for an open, end-to-end game.

Key Points:

Cadiz have lost three straight but score 2.00 goals per game at home.

Almeria's away form is poor (20% win rate) and they concede 1.60 per game on the road.

Head-to-head is a goal-fest: Both Teams Scored in 8 of the last 9 meetings.

Both teams have kept just one clean sheet in their last ten matches.

• The market's goal expectancy points to over 3.2 goals for this one.

So, what's the play? Trying to pick a winner here is a mug's game with both sides so up and down. But one thing screams value: goals at both ends. The odds for Both Teams to Score - Yes are sitting at a tempting 1.72. Given the overwhelming historical and current form evidence, that's where my money's going.