Notts County vs Chesterfield Prediction

Alright, settle in with your pint and bacon sarnie – we've got a cracking League Two clash coming up on Saturday lunchtime. Notts County are hosting Chesterfield, and if the form guide is anything to go by, the Magpies might just be pecking their way to another three points.

Let's have a butcher's at the hosts first. Notts County are sitting pretty in fourth spot with 64 points from 35 games, and they're absolutely flying at home. We're talking 83% win rate in their last six at their own gaff – that's proper fortress stuff. They've netted 1.83 goals per game on home soil while only shipping 0.5, which is tighter than a drum. Their recent form is nothing short of sensational: seven wins from their last ten, including a proper thumping 5-0 against Tranmere and a hard-fought 2-1 away at Walsall last weekend. Even when they slipped up against Grimsby (0-1) and Shrewsbury (1-0), they bounced back straight away. These lads have got promotion written all over them.

Now, Chesterfield – or the Spireites if you're being fancy – they're not having a bad season by any stretch. Eighth place with 56 points, but here's the thing: they've drawn 14 games this season. That's nearly 40% of their matches ending all square! Away from home, they've won 40% of their last five, which is decent but not exactly terrifying. Their recent form is a bit hit-and-miss: they just lost 2-3 at home to Shrewsbury (who are down in 17th), which is a bit of a shocker, though they did beat Colchester 3-0 and managed a draw at Crawley. They also nicked a 1-0 win at Salford earlier in the year, so they can grind out results against the big boys.

The head-to-head makes interesting reading. Chesterfield actually have the edge historically with three wins to Notts County's two, and they won the reverse fixture 2-0 on Boxing Day. But form is temporary, class is permanent, and right now Notts County are the ones with the wind in their sails.

Looking at the numbers, Notts County are averaging 1.6 goals per game over their last ten while conceding just 0.7. Chesterfield are scoring 1.5 but letting in 1.2. The goal expectancy has this down as 1.52 to 0.85 in favour of the hosts, which suggests a tight-ish affair but one the home side should edge.

The bookies have Notts County at evens (2.00) to win this, which I reckon is decent value. Given their home dominance and Chesterfield's recent wobble, I'd make the Magpies closer to 55% favourites. The draw is 3.30 and Chesterfield 3.40, but with County losing just twice in ten and Chesterfield struggling for consistency, the home win looks the shout.

Key Points:

• Notts County have won 83% of their last 6 home games, scoring 1.83 goals per game

• Chesterfield have drawn 14 of their 36 league games this season (39%)

• Notts County have won 7 of their last 10 matches, including a 5-0 thrashing of Tranmere

• Chesterfield lost their last away game 1-0 at Barnet and recently lost 2-3 at home to Shrewsbury

• The reverse fixture ended 2-0 to Chesterfield, but Notts County's form has improved significantly since December

• Both teams have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 10 games

Summary: Notts County are the form side and their home record is formidable. At evens, the home win offers solid value against a Chesterfield side that draws too many and loses concentration at the back. Back the Magpies to keep their promotion push rolling.