Wellington Phoenix vs Macarthur Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper gander at this A-League showdown between Wellington Phoenix and Macarthur. Two sides sitting pretty much next to each other in the table - Wellington in 7th with 5 points, Macarthur in 8th with 4 - but there's a world of difference in how they're playing, especially when you look at home and away form.

Wellington have been decent on their own patch lately, winning 60% of their last 5 home games. They've been competitive against the big boys too - took Brisbane Roar down 2-1, drew with Central Coast, and only lost 1-2 to Auckland who are sitting pretty at the top of the table. They keep the ball well (62.5% possession) and create chances with 16+ shots per game.

Macarthur, on the other hand, have been absolutely shocking away from home. Just 16.67% win rate in their last 6 away games - that's proper poor, that is. They only manage 0.67 goals per game on their travels compared to 2.00 at home. Recent away results include a 0-2 loss to Sydney and 0-1 defeat to Brisbane Roar. Not exactly filling the away fans with confidence, are they?

The head-to-head makes for interesting reading too. Nine meetings between these two, and get this - absolutely NO draws! Wellington have won 6 of those 9, including 2 of 3 at home. Last time they met, Wellington nicked it 2-1. Seven of those nine matches went over 2.5 goals, which suggests we might see some action.

Both teams are scoring around a goal per game and conceding similar amounts, but the home advantage for Wellington looks massive here. Macarthur's away form is that bad you'd have to wonder if they've got their travel boots on backwards.

The bookies have got Macarthur as slight favorites at 2.50, which seems a bit daft given their travels. Wellington at 2.62 looks like it might have a bit of value about it, especially when you consider they're decent at home and Macarthur can't buy a win on the road.