New York City FC vs Colorado Rapids Prediction

Right then, footy fans! Fancy a bit of MLS action this Saturday night? New York City FC are hosting the Colorado Rapids, and I've been looking at the form book with me morning coffee (and maybe a cheeky biscuit).

NYCFC are flying high at the top of the Eastern Conference – unbeaten after three games with seven points on the board. They absolutely demolished Orlando 5-0 last time out at home, and before that they nicked a solid 2-1 win away at Philadelphia. Even their draw was a respectable 1-1 at the Galaxy. They're proper purring right now, especially at home where they've bagged 2.33 goals a game and haven't conceded a single goal in their last three at the crib.

Now, Colorado ain't mugs – they're sitting pretty with six points from three games – but here's the rub, mate: they're Jekyll and Hyde. At home? Different gravy. They put four past the Galaxy and two past Portland. But on the road? They've lost four of their last five away days, including a 2-0 spanking at Seattle last week. They only win 20% of their away games and ship two goals a pop. When they travel, the wheels tend to fall off.

The head-to-head makes grim reading for the Rapids too. NYCFC have only lost once in seven meetings between these two, winning three and drawing the rest. Last time they met, NYCFC walked away with a 2-0 win, and the New Yorkers have kept two clean sheets in those seven encounters.

So what are we backing? The bookies have NYCFC at 1.55, which is shorter than my patience on a Monday morning, but sometimes you just have to hold your nose and back the banker. With Colorado's away day blues and NYCFC's fortress at home, the probability is high even if the price is skinny. If you fancy a bit more juice in the orange, Over 2.5 Goals at 1.62 looks tasty – the goal expectancies have this down for over three goals, and NYCFC's 5-0 win shows they can fill their boots.

Key Points:

NYCFC are unbeaten (2W-1D) and top of the East with a +6 goal difference

The New Yorkers have kept three clean sheets in their last three home games, scoring 2.33 per game

Colorado have lost 80% of their last five away games, conceding 2.0 goals per game on the road

Head-to-head record heavily favors NYCFC (3W-3D-1L)

• Goal expectancies suggest 3.37 total goals (Home 2.17, Away 1.20)

The Verdict:

It's the home win for me, mate. Colorado can't hack it on the road, and NYCFC are in proper form. At 1.55 it's not buying a new car, but it's buying a nice dinner when it lands. If you're feeling spicy, chuck the Over 2.5 in as well – could be a goal-fest in the Big Apple!