Sao Paulo vs Flamengo Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Brazilian Serie A opener. Sao Paulo hosting Flamengo is always a tasty one, but the form book tells two very different stories depending on where you look.

Sao Paulo have been all over the shop lately. Over their last ten, they've won three, drawn one, and lost six, shipping a whopping 21 goals. They've taken some proper hidings – a 6-0 drubbing at Fluminense and a 3-0 loss at Mirassol stand out. But here's the kicker: it's a classic case of Jekyll and Hyde. At home, it's a different animal. Their last four at their own gaff? Three wins and a narrow 2-3 defeat to Portuguesa. They're scoring two a game and only conceding one on average in front of their own fans. That 75% home win rate is the foundation they'll be building on.

Flamengo, on the other hand, look decent on paper with four wins from ten. But scratch the surface and their travel sickness is glaring. Away from home, they've only won one of their last six, conceding two goals per game on average. They lost 3-0 to Volta Redonda and 2-1 to Bangu in their recent Carioca travels. They do score on the road – 1.33 per game – but they leave the back door wide open.

Now, the head-to-head makes for interesting reading. In nine meetings, it's three wins apiece with four draws. But crucially, when Sao Paulo are at home, they've never lost to Flamengo – two wins and three draws from five. The last time they met, back in November, it finished 2-2. That tells you these clashes are usually tight, but the recent form suggests this one might not be.

So, what's the bet? The bookies have Flamengo as favourites at 1.80, but I'm not having that given their dodgy away form. The value lies elsewhere. Sao Paulo score two a game at home. Flamengo score but concede two a game away. Put simply, both teams are likely to find the net. Flamengo's last five away games have seen both teams score in four of them. The odds for 'Both Teams to Score - Yes' are sitting at a very backable 1.80. Given the goal trends, I fancy that to land more often than the price suggests.

Key Points:

Sao Paulo are strong at home (75% win rate last 4), scoring 2.0 goals per game.

Flamengo are poor travellers (16.67% away win rate last 6), conceding 2.0 goals per game.

Sao Paulo are unbeaten at home against Flamengo in their head-to-head history.

Flamengo's recent away games frequently see both teams score (4 out of last 5).

• The last meeting between these sides ended 2-2.

Summary: Forget the fancy odds for an away win. This has goals written all over it. Sao Paulo will fancy their chances at home, and Flamengo always carry a threat. The smart money, with solid value, is on both teams getting on the scoresheet.