Lorient vs Nantes Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Ligue 1 clash. Lorient are sitting pretty in 9th, while Nantes are down in 16th and having a right old struggle. The numbers don't lie, and they're shouting one thing loud and clear: Lorient are the team in form.

Lorient haven't lost in their last ten games across all competitions. That's a proper run, that is. They've beaten some decent sides too – a 2-0 win away at Rennes, a 3-1 victory at Monaco, and a 1-0 home win against Lyon. They're solid, scoring an average of 2.2 goals a game and conceding just 0.6 over that period. At home, they're unbeaten in their last four, winning two and drawing two. They know how to get a result.

Nantes, on the other hand, have only won two of their last ten. One was a cup game against lower-league opposition, and the other was a proper shock – a 2-0 away win at Marseille. Fair play for that one, but it's been a sea of defeats otherwise. They've shipped four against Nice, two against Paris FC, and four against Angers recently. They concede over two goals a game on average, and their defence looks leakier than a sieve.

When these two met back in November, it ended 1-1 at Nantes' place. But history at Lorient's ground tells a different story. Lorient have won three of the last four home games against Nantes – that's a 75% win rate. They like playing this lot at home.

The bookies have Lorient at 1.83 to win. That's a nice bit of value for a side that's unbeaten in ten, playing at home against a team that's lost five of their last ten. Nantes' only hope might be that they score a fair few on the road (1.8 per game), but Lorient's defence at home is tight, letting in just 0.75 per game. I can see Lorient controlling this and getting the three points.

Key Points:

Lorient are unbeaten in their last 10 matches (W6, D4).

Nantes have lost 5 of their last 10 matches.

Lorient have a strong home record against Nantes, winning 3 of the last 4 meetings there.

Lorient average 2.2 goals scored and 0.6 conceded in their last 10.

Nantes average 2.1 goals conceded in their last 10.

Lorient have had 7 days rest, Nantes have had 6 and played twice in the last fortnight.

In summary, all the momentum, form, and historical advantage points towards the home side. The price of 1.83 for a Lorient win looks like a bit of a gift. I'm backing the form team to get the job done.