Norwich vs Blackburn Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Championship scrap. Norwich at home to Blackburn. On paper, it's 19th vs 21st, a proper relegation six-pointer. But scratch beneath the surface, and the tale of the tape tells a very different story.

Norwich are flying. I mean, properly in form. Look at their last ten: six wins, one draw, three losses. They're banging in the goals – 18 in those ten games. That's nearly two a game. They smashed West Brom 5-0 away, beat league leaders Coventry 2-1 at home, and nicked a win at Wrexham. They're playing with confidence, scoring for fun, and at home they've won three of their last five. They're creating chances too, averaging over 4.5 shots on target per game. They're a side with their tails up.

Now, Blackburn. Bless 'em, they're having a right old struggle. One win in their last ten. One. And that was against Sheffield Wednesday, who are propping up the entire league. They've drawn five, lost four, and the most telling stat? They've scored just five goals in those ten matches. Five! That's half a goal a game. Away from home it's even bleaker: no wins in their last five on the road, and they're scoring a pathetic 0.2 goals per game away. They're tough to beat sometimes – they've drawn at Middlesbrough and with Sheffield Wednesday – but they simply cannot find the net.

The head-to-head history is the only thing giving Blackburn fans hope. Norwich have a shocking record at home against them, not winning any of the last five meetings here. But that's history, and current form is a much louder shout. This Norwich side is a different beast to the ones that struggled in those past games.

When you look at the stats, it's all Norwich. More shots, more shots on target, better accuracy, more possession, better passing. Blackburn's attack away from home is virtually non-existent. They average just 1.4 shots on target per game on their travels. Norwich's defence, which concedes about a goal a game at home, should be able to handle that.

Key Points:

Norwich's Hot Streak: 6 wins in last 10, scoring 1.8 goals per game on average.

Blackburn's Goal Drought: Just 5 goals in last 10, and a mere 0.2 per game away.

Home/Away Form Split: Norwich have a 60% home win rate recently; Blackburn have a 0% away win rate.

Head-to-Hoodoo: History favours Blackburn at this ground, but current momentum is overwhelmingly with Norwich.

• Fatigue Edge: Norwich have had 7 days rest vs Blackburn's 4, which could be crucial in the latter stages.

So, to the betting. The bookies have Norwich at just over evens (2.01). For a side in this kind of form, at home, against a team that can't buy a goal or an away win, that looks like a bit of value to me. The 'Both Teams to Score - No' market at 2.05 is also tempting given Blackburn's toothless attack, but the straight home win is where my money's going.

Summary: Forget the league positions, this is all about form. Norwich are playing with fire in their belly and goals in their boots. Blackburn are plucky but blunt. All signs point to a home victory. I'm backing Norwich to continue their good run and claim three vital points.