West Brom vs Charlton Prediction

Blimey, West Brom are in proper trouble, ain't they? Ten games without a win – that's not a sticky patch, that's a full-blown crisis. The Baggies have gone 0-4-6 in their last ten, including a right hammering at home to Norwich (0-5) and a drubbing away at the same lot (1-3). They couldn't even score against Birmingham or Stoke in recent 0-0 draws, and they just got turned over 2-0 by league leaders Coventry. The Hawthorns used to be a fortress, but right now it's like an open house – they've lost three of their last four at home, shipping 2.5 goals a game while barely managing 0.5 at the other end.

Charlton, meanwhile, are ticking along nicely in 18th spot. They've picked up 12 points from their last ten games – three wins and three draws – which doesn't sound spectacular until you see West Brom's miserable four points from the same run. The Addicks have shown they can mix it with the big boys, beating Sheffield United 1-0 and Leicester 2-0 away from home. They've even kept four clean sheets in their last ten, which is four more than West Brom have managed at home recently. Even in defeat, they only lost 1-0 to a Stoke side that had been keeping clean sheets for fun (60% rate).

The head-to-head is tighter than a drum with one win apiece and two draws from the last four, but Charlton nicked the reverse fixture 1-0 back in November. That was at The Valley, mind, and West Brom's home record against Charlton is just the one game – a draw – so there's no history to save them here.

Now here's the kicker: the bookies have West Brom as 1.81 favourites! That's taking the mickey given they couldn't win a raffle right now. Charlton at 4.45 looks massive value for a side that's actually winning games and scoring goals – they've netted in eight of their last ten, while West Brom have fired blanks in five of theirs.

Key Points:

• West Brom are winless in 10 matches (0-4-6), including heavy home defeats to Norwich (0-5) and Portsmouth (0-3)

• Charlton have won three of their last 10, including away victories at Leicester (2-0) and Sheffield United (1-0)

• West Brom have conceded 20 goals in their last 10 games (2.0 per game) while scoring just six (0.6 per game)

• Charlton have kept four clean sheets in their last 10 compared to West Brom's two

• The Baggies have lost three of their last four home games, failing to win any

• Charlton are picking up points in 75% of their recent away games (1 win, 2 draws in last 4)

Summary: West Brom are in freefall and the prices don't reflect it one bit. Charlton at 4.45 is the value shout – they've got the form, the confidence, and they're facing a side that couldn't hit a barn door with a banjo right now. Back the away win.