PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this one. PEC Zwolle are in absolute shambles at the moment, aren't they? Getting stuffed 8-2 by Heracles - who are dead bottom of the league - tells you everything you need to know about their defensive situation. They've kept exactly zero clean sheets in their last 10 games. ZERO! That's not just bad, that's pub team level stuff.

At home, it's even worse for Zwolle. They've not won a single home game in their last four attempts, managing just one draw and three defeats. They're only scoring half a goal per game on their own patch while shipping 2.5. That's a recipe for disaster, my friends.

Now look at Sparta Rotterdam. Completely different story when they're on the road. They've won three of their last four away games - that's a 75% win rate, which is proper decent. More importantly, they're tight at the back away from home, only letting in 0.75 goals per game on their travels. They've also kept four clean sheets in their last 10 matches overall.

The head-to-head suggests Zwolle have done okay against Sparta at home historically (2 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss), but form counts for everything in football. And right now, Zwolle's form is shocking while Sparta's away form is solid.

You've got one side that can't defend and can't score at home, against another that's strong away and keeps things tight defensively. The bookies have Sparta as slight favorites at 2.55, but given the massive gulf in form and confidence, that looks like proper value to me.

Key Points:

• PEC Zwolle have kept 0 clean sheets in 10 games - absolutely shocking defensively

• Sparta Rotterdam have won 75% of their last 4 away games

• Zwolle score just 0.50 goals per game at home

• Sparta concede only 0.75 goals per game away from home

• Zwolle just lost 8-2 to bottom-of-the-table Heracles

The way I see it, Sparta's solid away form and defensive organization should be too much for this shambolic Zwolle side. The value is definitely with the visitors here.