Preview
Mr SimpleRight, so we've got Levante hosting Sevilla on 12 October, and if you've been keeping an eye on the numbers, this one's got a clear angle that's hard to shake.
Levante at home are the story here. Over their last 20 home games, they've won 11, drawn 4 and lost 5, racking up 1.85 points per game. They score 1.65 a game at home and concede just 1.2. Now look at Sevilla on the road: 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses in 20 away games, 1.1 points per game, 1.05 scored and 1.5 conceded. That's a gap that's hard to ignore. Levante at home are simply the better side in this fixture, and the numbers don't lie.
And the head-to-head backs it up nicely. In the last 12 months, Levante have won both meetings — 2-0 at their own ground in April and 3-0 at Sevilla's in January. Two clean sheets, five goals, zero conceded. That's not a coincidence; that's a pattern. At this venue specifically, the one recent meeting went 2-0 to the hosts, and the reverse at Sevilla's ground was a 3-0 away win for Levante.
Now, the counter-argument, and I'll be fair: both sides are on a two-game losing run. Levante dropped their last two (1-3 at Villarreal, 2-4 to Barcelona at home), and Sevilla have lost their last two as well (1-3 to Barcelona at home and 1-3 to Aston Villa in a friendly). Both have been getting it from tough opposition, so it's not exactly a sign of collapse. Sevilla's last 10 overall is 5W 1D 4L at 1.6 points per game, which is a touch better than Levante's 4W 2D 4L at 1.4. And Sevilla haven't failed to score in any of their last five games, which keeps the threat alive on the road.
But here's the thing — Sevilla's away record is their weak spot. Ten losses in 20 away games is a problem, and the head-to-head at this venue plus the reverse tells you exactly how this fixture tends to play out. The market has this fairly even — Levante at 2.84 (35.21%), Sevilla at 2.8 (35.71%), draw at 3.41 (29.33%). I'd put Levante's chance closer to 44%, which gives you a decent edge on the 2.84 price. The home record, the head-to-head, and the fact that Sevilla's away form is their worst patch all point the same way.
Key Points:
- Levante's home record: 11W 4D 5L in 20 games, 1.85 PPG, 1.65 scored per game
- Sevilla's away record: 6W 4D 10L in 20 games, 1.1 PPG, 1.5 conceded per game
- Levante won both recent head-to-head meetings (2-0 at home, 3-0 away)
- Both teams are on 2-game losing runs, but against tough opposition
- Sevilla have scored in all their last 5 games, keeping the away threat alive
So there we are — the numbers, the head-to-head, and the venue all point the same way. I'm going with the Levante home win at 2.84.