Fiorentina vs Bologna Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this one. On paper, it looks like a mismatch of epic proportions. Fiorentina are rock bottom of Serie A with a grand total of ZERO wins from seven games - that's proper relegation form, that is. Three points all season, bless 'em. They've managed to draw three times, but when you're scraping around at the bottom, draws don't really cut the mustard.

Now look at Bologna - sitting pretty in 5th place with 13 points. They've been banging in the goals too, averaging 1.4 per game while keeping it tight at the back with only 0.7 conceded. That's the sort of form that gets you into Europe, not fighting for your life.

Fiorentina's recent form reads like a horror story: lost 2-1 to AC Milan, lost 1-2 to AS Roma, and their only 'win' came against some team called Sigma Olomouc in a competition nobody cares about. They did manage a 0-0 draw with Pisa, but when you're celebrating a point against Pisa, you know you're in trouble.

Bologna, on the other hand, are flying. Won 2-0 at Cagliari, smashed Pisa 4-0 at home, and even though they drew with Freiburg in Europe, they're still looking sharp.

Now, here's the interesting bit. Historically, Fiorentina have actually done alright against Bologna at home - won 3 out of 5 at their place. But form, as they say, is temporary while class is permanent. And right now, Fiorentina have neither.

The stats don't lie either. Fiorentina are averaging less than a goal per game (0.90) and conceding more than they score (1.10). Bologna are scoring nearly double that (1.40) and conceding half (0.70). It's not rocket science, is it?

The bookies have got this as almost a 50-50 call, which to me looks like they're still living in the past when Fiorentina were actually decent. Times have changed, my friends.

Fiorentina's home form is absolutely shocking too - lost 75% of their recent home games. That's not fortress stuff, that's a revolving door.

Look, I'm not saying this is a dead cert - football's a funny old game and all that. But when you've got a team that can't buy a win at home against a team flying high in the top five, well, the value's pretty clear to see.