Exeter City vs Stevenage Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this League One clash. Exeter City welcome Stevenage to their patch, and if recent history is anything to go by, the home fans might be in for a good afternoon.

First, the league table. Stevenage sit pretty in 8th, seven points ahead of Exeter in 14th. On paper, you'd fancy the visitors. But football isn't played on paper, is it? It's played on grass, and recently, Exeter's grass has been a bit of a fortress. Let's talk form. Exeter's last ten games show five wins, a draw, and four losses. Sounds middling, but you've got to look at the details. They got walloped 10-1 by Manchester City. Let's be honest, that happens to the best of 'em in the cup – we'll chuck that one straight in the bin. Their other losses were to Cardiff (top of the league) and Bolton (6th). Not shameful. Meanwhile, they've beaten Luton (7th), AFC Wimbledon twice, and put three past Barnsley. They also nabbed a point away at Huddersfield (5th). That's decent going against sides in and around them.

The real story is at home. Their last four games at their gaff? Four wins. Four clean sheets. They've scored an average of 2.25 goals and, crucially, conceded absolutely none. That's not a backline, that's a brick wall. Wins like 3-0 against Barnsley and 1-0 against Luton show they can grind out results when it matters.

Now, Stevenage. Their last ten reads two wins, four draws, four losses. They're not exactly flying, are they? Their wins were good ones, mind – a 3-1 away at Stockport and a 1-0 at Peterborough – but that was back in November. Since then, it's been a bit of a slog: a loss to Luton, a draw with Plymouth, a loss to Cardiff, and draws with AFC Wimbledon and Burton Albion. They're finding it hard to get over the line. Away from home, they're a bit more solid, conceding just 0.83 per game, but they only score one a trip themselves.

Head-to-head? Exeter love playing Stevenage at home. Three wins and a draw from four meetings. The last two here finished 2-0 and 1-0 to Exeter. Stevenage did win the reverse fixture this season 2-1, so they'll know they can beat this lot, but doing it at Exeter is a different kettle of fish.

When you crunch the numbers, Exeter at home are having more shots (nearly 14 a game), more on target (5), and more of the ball. Stevenage, on their travels, see less of it and aren't as accurate with their passing.

So, what's the bet? The bookies have Exeter at 2.50 to win. For a side with a 100% home record in their last four, keeping clean sheets and facing an opponent who's drawing more than they're winning, that looks like a bit of value to me. Stevenage are no mugs, sitting higher in the table, but momentum and venue count for a lot in this league.

Key Points:

Exeter are perfect in their last four home games (W4), scoring 2.25 and conceding 0 per game.

Stevenage have won just twice in their last ten matches (D4, L4).

Exeter have a strong historical home record against Stevenage (3 wins, 1 draw).

The last meeting was a 1-2 away win for Stevenage, but Exeter have been transformed at home since.

• Odds of 2.50 for a home win offer potential value given the contrasting recent forms.

Summary: All the recent trends point towards Exeter. Their home form is red-hot, Stevenage are stuttering, and the history books are on their side. Sometimes you've just got to back the team in form, at home, with the momentum. The price is right for a punt on the hosts.