Oviedo vs Valencia Prediction

Right then, let's have a butcher's at this La Liga clash from the Estadio Carlos Tartiere. We've got rock-bottom Oviedo hosting a Valencia side that's finally finding their feet. It's the classic tale of the strugglers versus the mid-table marchers, and I've got a sneaky feeling the visitors are going to come away with the bacon.

Oviedo are in a right old pickle, mate. Sat dead last with just 18 points from 27 games and only three wins all season – that's proper relegation form that is. Their last ten matches tell the story: one win, four draws, five defeats. The only bright spot was a 1-0 home win against Girona back in January, but since then it's been grim viewing. They did manage a 3-3 thriller against Real Sociedad recently, which shows they've got a bit of fight, and they held Espanyol to a 1-1 draw last time out. But here's the kicker – at home they're only averaging 0.75 goals a game, and they've won just one of their last four on their own patch. When you're creating chances like a teetotaler at a brewery, you're always up against it.

Now Valencia, they're a different kettle of fish entirely. Twelve points clear of Oviedo and climbing the table with six wins from their last ten. No draws mind – they're either winning or losing, none of this faffing about for a point. Their away form is particularly tasty: 60% win rate on the road, averaging 1.4 goals scored and just 0.8 conceded. They've beaten Alaves, Osasuna, Levante, Espanyol and Getafe in recent weeks – that's not a bad list of scalps. Sure, they lost to the big boys like Real Madrid and Villarreal, but against the strugglers, they're doing the business.

The head-to-head makes interesting reading – Oviedo actually won the reverse fixture 2-1 back in September. But that was then and this is now. Valencia's trend is pointing north while Oviedo's is heading south faster than a greased weasel.

Looking at the odds, the bookies have Valencia at 2.60 for the away win. Given their form and Oviedo's struggles, that looks like a bit of value to me. The home side are 2.80 which, frankly, is taking the mickey given they've won three games all season.

Key Points:

• Oviedo have won just 3 of 27 league games and sit bottom with a -27 goal difference

• Valencia have won 6 of their last 10, including 3 of their last 5 away trips

• Oviedo averaging just 0.75 goals per game at home; Valencia conceding only 0.80 away

• The reverse fixture ended 2-1 to Oviedo, but form has diverged significantly since September

• Valencia's last 10 games show an improving trend in goals and points, while Oviedo's are declining

The Verdict:

This one looks straightforward enough. Valencia are playing with confidence, know how to win away from home, and are facing a side that couldn't hit a barn door with a banjo. At 2.60, the away win is the shout. Oviedo might nick a goal – they managed three against Sociedad after all – but Valencia should have too much quality. Get on the away win before the odds drop.