Annecy vs RED Star FC 93 Prediction

Right then, Friday night under the lights in Ligue 2 and we've got a proper table-vs-form conundrum brewing. Annecy are hosting RED Star FC 93, and while the visitors are sitting pretty in 4th place with 40 points, the smart money's looking at the home side who've been picking up wins while RED Star have been perfecting the art of the stalemate.

Let's have a butcher's at Annecy first. The lads from the Alps are 9th on 33 points, but don't let that fool ya – their recent form is bang on. Five wins in their last ten, including a cracking 1-0 victory against Dunkerque (who are no mugs, sitting 6th) and a thumping 3-0 away day at Guingamp. At home, they've been solid as a rock: beating Clermont 2-1, Amiens 2-0, and only dropping points to high-flying Reims (2-1 loss) and a dodgy 2-2 draw at struggling Laval last time out. They're averaging 1.33 goals at home and keeping it tight at the back with just one conceded per game.

Now RED Star – fourth in the table but playing like they're scared of their own shadow lately. Six draws in their last ten games, mate! They just drew 0-0 with Bastia (who are 18th and rubbish) and 2-2 with Boulogne (13th). The only time they've looked lively was a 3-0 walloping of Grenoble away, but that was sandwiched between a 3-0 home drubbing by PAU and a string of draws that'd bore a chess grandmaster. They're drawing 60% of their away games – great for acca insurance, terrible for actually winning football matches.

The head-to-head makes lovely reading for Annecy fans too. At home against RED Star, they're unbeaten – two wins and a draw from three meetings. The last time these two met back in August, RED Star nicked it 1-0 at their place, but Annecy have got the revenge look in their eyes and the home advantage to back it up.

The goal expectancies are tight (0.97 vs 1.00), suggesting a low-scoring affair, which suits Annecy's recent defensive solidity – four clean sheets in their last ten. RED Star might have a tight away defence (0.60 conceded per game), but they're not scoring enough to justify that 2.80 price for the away win.

Key Points:

• Annecy have won 5 of their last 10, while RED Star have only managed 2 wins in the same period

• Annecy beat 6th-placed Dunkerque 1-0 at home recently – showing they can mix it with the top half

• RED Star have drawn 6 of their last 10 games, including against bottom-half sides Bastia and Boulogne

• Annecy are unbeaten in their last 3 home games against RED Star (2 wins, 1 draw)

• Annecy's last 3 home games: 2 wins and a draw, scoring 5 and conceding just 2

The Verdict:

The bookies have RED Star as slight favourites given their league position, but the form book screams Annecy. At 2.40, the home win is the value play here – you're getting a side in winning form against a side that's forgotten where the net is. Back Annecy to send those draw specialists home empty-handed.