Casa Pia vs Moreirense Prediction

Blimey, what a week it's been for Casa Pia! Just when you thought the Primeira Liga was getting predictable, they go and turn over the league leaders Porto 2-1 on their own patch. That result alone makes this Sunday evening clash worth a butcher's hook, and at 2.62 for the home win, there might be a bit of value knocking about too.

Let's not beat around the bush – Casa Pia have been proper inconsistent this season, sitting down in 13th with just 22 points from 23 games. But it's a different story when they play at home, especially lately. They've hit 1.80 goals per game on their own turf, and that 3-2 thriller against Arouca followed by the shock win over Porto shows they can find the net against anyone. Sure, they had a stinker against Famalicao last time out (lost 2-0), but before that they were scoring for fun – even that mental 3-3 draw with basement boys AVS showed they're not afraid to have a go.

Now, Moreirense might be 11 points better off in 8th place, but they're about as consistent as my Aunt Mary's gravy – lumpy one minute, smooth the next. They've lost five of their last ten, including a right pasting at home to Sporting (0-3) last weekend. The funny thing is, they're actually better away from home than at their own gaff – 1.00 goals per game on the road and a decent defensive record of just 0.80 conceded. But look at those recent away results: they lost to struggling Alverca (1-2) and couldn't score against Estrela (0-0). When the pressure's on, they tend to go missing.

The head-to-head makes interesting reading – six meetings, three wins each, not a single draw between them. Casa Pia have the edge at home with two wins from three against these lot, and given that Porto result is still fresh in the memory, the confidence should be flowing like cheap lager at a supporters' club do.

Key Points:

• Casa Pia's shock 2-1 victory over league leaders Porto on February 2nd proves they can mix it with the big boys at home

• Moreirense have lost 5 of their last 10 matches and were beaten 3-0 by Sporting in their most recent outing

• The H2H record is perfectly balanced at 3 wins apiece with no draws in 6 meetings

• Casa Pia average 1.80 goals per game at home compared to Moreirense's 0.60 away goals conceded average

• Moreirense have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 10 but conceded 3 to Sporting last time out

Summary:

The bookies have this closer than a London tube at rush hour, but I'm siding with the home side. That Porto win wasn't a fluke – it showed Casa Pia have the quality when it matters, and at home they tend to turn up. Moreirense are too hit-and-miss for my liking, and while they're higher in the table, their away form against the lower half has been patchy. At 2.62, there's enough juice in the price to have a nibble on the hosts. Back Casa Pia to win.