Preview
Mr SimpleRight, let's have a chat about this one. Fortaleza EC are at home on 12 October to take on CRB, and if you've been following the numbers, this one's got a pretty clear shape to it.
Fortaleza EC have been solid at home. Over their last 20 home games, they've won 12, drawn 5 and lost just 3. That's 2.05 points per game, and they're averaging 1.7 goals a game while conceding 1.05. Their defence at home is the real story — they've kept clean sheets in 6 of those 20 and only failed to score in 1. In their last 10 games across all venues, they haven't lost a single one. Five wins, five draws, zero defeats. That's a team that's hard to shift.
Now look at CRB on the road. Their last 20 away games? Six wins, four draws and ten losses. That's 1.1 points per game. They're averaging 0.85 goals a game away and conceding 1.6. In their last 10 games, they've dropped four of them. They've got some fire at home — three wins in their last five, including a 3-1 and a 3-0 — but the road is a different story entirely.
The head-to-head at this ground tells its own tale. The only recent meeting at Fortaleza EC's ground was back in April, and they won 2-1 in the Copa Do Brasil. The two meetings at CRB's end were both draws — 1-1 and 0-0. So when these two meet at this venue, Fortaleza EC have the edge.
The counter-argument? CRB have been scoring. In their last 10 games they've averaged 1.7 goals a game, and in their last 5 they've racked up 9. They've got a bit of bite. And the xG numbers from August show both teams creating around 1.9 to 2.0 chances per game, so it's not like one side is completely outgunned in front of goal. CRB's away defence is leaky at 1.6 conceded per game, so if Fortaleza EC find their rhythm, the goals should come.
But here's the thing: Fortaleza EC's defence is the anchor. They've conceded just 0.7 per game in their last 10, and CRB's away attack is the weakest part of their record at 0.85 per game. The market has Fortaleza EC at 1.82 for the win, which prices them at about 55%. I'd put their chance closer to 63% based on the home record, the away struggles of CRB, and the fact that Fortaleza EC haven't lost in ten. That's a bit of value there.
Key Points:
- Fortaleza EC: 12W 5D 3L in 20 home games; no losses in their last 10 across all venues
- CRB: 6W 4D 10L in 20 away games; 4 losses in their last 10
- H2H at this ground: Fortaleza EC won 2-1 in April; both meetings at CRB's end were draws
- Fortaleza EC average 1.7 scored and 1.05 conceded at home; CRB average 0.85 scored and 1.6 conceded away
- Market prices Fortaleza EC at 54.95% for the win; the evidence supports a higher probability
I'm going with the Fortaleza EC home win.