Exeter City vs Plymouth Prediction

Right then, let's talk about this Devon derby! We've got two sides stuck in the relegation mire, but blimey, they couldn't be heading in different directions right now.

Exeter City are having a proper nightmare of it. 19th in the table with just 13 points from 13 games, and their recent form reads like a horror story - 2 wins, 1 draw, and 7 losses in their last 10. They're struggling to find the net too, averaging just 0.6 goals per game. At home, they're winning only 20% of matches and scoring a measly 0.8 goals per game. Their recent results tell the tale: a 1-0 loss to Stockport, a 1-1 draw with Reading, and that 0-1 home defeat to Huddersfield. The only real highlight was that 3-0 win against Peterborough way back in August.

Plymouth, on the other hand, are a completely different proposition despite being just one place below Exeter. Their recent form is top-notch - 6 wins, 2 draws, and only 2 losses in their last 10. They're absolutely banging them in, averaging 2.3 goals per game. Just look at some of their recent performances: a 4-0 hammering of Burton Albion, a 3-2 win at Luton, and a 4-2 victory against Stockport County. Even their recent loss was a narrow 1-2 defeat to AFC Wimbledon.

The head-to-head makes for interesting reading. Plymouth have the edge overall with 4 wins to Exeter's 3, and when they've met at Exeter's patch, it's split 2-2. But here's the kicker - 6 of their 8 meetings have gone over 2.5 goals, so these fixtures tend to serve up plenty of action.

Plymouth's away form is particularly impressive - they're winning 66.67% of their away games and scoring a whopping 2.67 goals per game on the road. Exeter's home form is the complete opposite, winning just 20% and struggling to score.

Given the massive contrast in form and Plymouth's free-scoring away record, I'm backing the visitors to take the points in this one. The odds offer decent value too, considering Plymouth's recent performances on their travels.

Key Points:

• Plymouth's away form is excellent (66.67% win rate, 2.67 goals per game)

• Exeter's home form is poor (20% win rate, 0.8 goals per game)

• Plymouth scoring freely (2.3 goals per game overall)

• Historical H2H shows plenty of goals (6/8 over 2.5)

• Both teams level on points but Plymouth have game in hand

Summary:

Despite both teams being near the bottom, Plymouth's recent form and away scoring record make them the value pick here. Exeter are struggling at both ends of the pitch at home, while Plymouth are finding the net for fun on their travels. The odds of 2.50 for an away win look generous given the form guide.