FC Thun vs Grasshoppers Prediction

Here we go then, top versus... well, not quite bottom, but close enough. FC Thun are absolutely flying at the summit of the Swiss Super League, and they welcome a Grasshoppers side that's been struggling to turn draws into wins.

Let's cut to the chase. Thun have won nine of their last ten matches. Nine! The only blot on their copybook was a 2-2 draw against second-placed St. Gallen last time out at home. Before that? They were putting five past Lausanne, four past Young Boys, and three past the likes of Servette, Winterthur and yes, Grasshoppers themselves back in January when they won 3-1 away from home. They're banging in 2.7 goals per game on average and sitting pretty 14 points clear at the top. Proper champions-elect, this lot.

Now, Grasshoppers. Bless 'em, they've only won one of their last ten. One! They've drawn five, mind, so they're not total pushovers, but when you're drawing 1-1 with Lausanne and losing 3-4 to Luzern, you're not exactly striking fear into the league leaders. They've failed to win any of their last four away trips, losing half of them, and they're conceding 1.5 goals per game on the road.

The head-to-head is tighter than you'd think over the long haul, but Thun's 3-1 win in the reverse fixture tells you everything about where these two are right now. Thun are averaging 2.8 goals per game at home, and with Grasshoppers shipping goals regularly, this looks like a home banker.

The bookies have Thun at 1.60 to win, which might look a bit skinny at first glance, but do the maths. Thun are winning 90% of their games lately. Even accounting for Grasshoppers' habit of grinding out draws, this is still a 70-30 shot in my book. The goal expectancies have this down as a 2.15 to 1.00 affair in Thun's favour, and given the form lines, that looks about right.

Key Points:

• Thun have won 9 of their last 10 matches, scoring 27 goals in the process (2.7 per game)

• Grasshoppers have won just 1 of their last 10, drawing 5 and losing 4

• Thun beat Grasshoppers 3-1 in the reverse fixture in January

• Grasshoppers are winless in their last 4 away matches (0 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses)

• Thun are averaging 2.8 goals per game at home this season

The Bet: Back the league leaders to get the job done. Thun should have too much quality for a Grasshoppers side that's been drawing too many and winning too few.