Villarreal vs Valencia Prediction

Alright, gather round the bar, lads. Sunday night under the lights in La Liga and we've got a right interesting one at the Estadio de la Ceramica. Villarreal, flying high in third place with 48 points, are hosting a Valencia side that's been having a bit of a nightmare campaign down in 15th. Twenty-two points separate these two – that's not a gap, that's a chasm you could drive a bus through!

Now, I'll be honest with you, the Yellow Submarine have been a bit patchy lately. They've lost four of their last six in all competitions, including that 3-0 walloping by Bayer Leverkusen in Europe and a disappointing 2-1 defeat at Getafe who've been struggling themselves. But – and here's the thing – when they click at home, they absolutely click. That 4-1 demolition of Espanyol a couple of weeks back was a proper statement, and they followed it up with a gritty 1-0 win at Levante last time out. They're scoring two a game on average at home this season, though they do tend to let one in at the other end.

Valencia, though, are a funny old team this year. Sitting just above the drop zone, you'd think they'd be cannon fodder, but look closer and they've actually been better on their travels than at the Mestalla! They've won 60% of their away games recently, compared to just 20% at home. They beat Levante 2-0 last weekend and nicked a 1-0 at Getafe not long ago. They've had a full week to rest – seven days to Villarreal's four – and they've played two games fewer in the last fortnight, so the legs should be fresher.

But here's where it gets tasty for us punters. Villarreal absolutely own this fixture at home. We're talking a 75% win rate against Valencia on their own patch, unbeaten in the last four home meetings. The last time these two locked horns back in October, Villarreal strolled to a 2-0 win. History tends to repeat in this derby, and with the home side scoring freely and Valencia conceding 1.4 goals per game on the road, I can see the Yellow Submarine continuing that dominance.

The goal expectancies point to a lively one – around 1.60 for the hosts and 1.45 for the visitors – suggesting we might see three goals or more. Both teams have been involved in BTTS in 60% of their recent games too. But for my money, the value lies in the match result. At 1.70, the bookies are offering a fair price for a home win, but given that H2H record and the gulf in class between third and 15th, I reckon Villarreal's true chances are closer to 65%.

Key Points:

• Villarreal sit 3rd in La Liga with 48 points, Valencia are down in 15th with just 26 points

• The Yellow Submarine have won 75% of home meetings against Valencia historically (3 wins, 1 draw)

• Valencia have won 60% of their away games recently despite their low league position

• Villarreal average 2.00 goals per game at home this season

• Both teams have seen BTTS in 60% of their last 10 matches

Summary: Back Villarreal to make home advantage count and continue their H2H dominance at 1.70.