Southend vs Sutton Utd Prediction

Right then, let's have a look at this National League clash on Tuesday night. Southend, sitting pretty in 7th, welcome Sutton United who are down in 18th and looking over their shoulder a bit. On paper, it's a bit of a mismatch – 15 points and 25 goals of difference in the table tells its own story.

Southend are the form side here, no two ways about it. They're solid, especially at the back. In their last ten, they've conceded just eight goals and kept five clean sheets. That's proper defending. They're coming off a nice 1-0 win away at Braintree on Boxing Day. Before that, they held the league leaders, Rochdale, to a 0-0 draw on their patch. At home, they're even better – scoring nearly three a game (2.67 to be exact) and conceding less than one. Remember that 4-0 FA Trophy win over Truro City and the 3-0 league win over Altrincham? That's the kind of performance they can produce on their own turf.

Now, Sutton. Blimey, their away form makes for grim reading if you're a fan. In their last four on the road, they've shipped three goals a game on average. They got thumped 4-1 by Solihull Moors and another 4-1 by Walton & Hersham in the Trophy. Even when they win away, like the 3-2 at Truro, they're leaking goals. They score a fair few themselves (1.75 away), but you can't concede that many and expect to get anything against a side like Southend.

The head-to-head is interesting – Sutton won 3-1 last season and they drew 1-1 earlier this year. So they've had Southend's number a bit. But that was then, and this is now. Sutton's overall trends are all pointing down – goals, points, the lot. Southend's are ticking up.

The bookies have Southend at a short 1.42 to win. Sometimes the obvious bet is the right one. With Sutton's defence on the road looking like a sieve and Southend's attack firing at home, I can only see one outcome here.

Key Points:

Southend are 7th, Sutton are 18th – a 15-point gap.

Southend have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 10 games.

Sutton concede an average of 3.00 goals per game in their last 4 away matches.

Southend score 2.67 goals per game at home recently.

• Sutton's form trends (goals, points) are all declining.

The Verdict:

All the numbers point to a home win. Southend are stronger, in better form, and rock-solid at the back. Sutton's travel sickness should continue. I'm backing Southend to win at what still looks like a bit of value given the gulf between these sides.