Lexington vs FC Tulsa Prediction

Lexington come into this one with the kind of form that makes a man reach for his beer before the match has even kicked off. Four wins in a row, 16 goals scored and just 4 conceded in that run, and they've not dropped a point in their last four. At home, over 20 games, they've won 11 of them, averaging 2.25 goals a game and conceding just 1.1. That's a side that's clicking, boys.

FC Tulsa, on the other hand, are not having the best of times. One win, three draws and a loss in their last five, and they're scoring just 1.2 goals a game. Away from home over 20 games, they've won 6, drawn 7 and lost 7, averaging 1.3 goals scored and 1.45 conceded. That's a side that's struggling to find their rhythm on the road.

Now, the head-to-head gives me a bit of a pause, and I'll be honest, it's not lekker to see a side that's been scoring 16 in four games fail to score in every meeting against this opponent. In all three meetings between these two, Lexington went blank. The most recent, back in July at FC Tulsa's ground, was a 0-0 draw. The two before that — a 0-2 and a 3-0 — are over 12 months old, so I won't hang too much weight on them. But the fact that Lexington haven't found the net in this fixture is something to note.

The counter-argument is real: FC Tulsa's defence has been solid recently, conceding just 0.9 per game over their last 10, and they've kept a clean sheet in one of their last five. They're not the side you expect to fall apart, and that 0-0 in July showed they can park the bus and survive.

But here's the thing — Lexington's attacking output in this current run is extraordinary. Four games, 16 goals. At home they've scored 45 in 20 games. FC Tulsa away have managed just 26 in 20. The numbers don't lie, and the form gap between these two sides right now is significant. Lexington's last 10 across all venues shows 6 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses, with 2.4 goals per game. FC Tulsa's last 10 shows 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses, with 1.2 goals per game. That's a world of difference.

Key Points:

• Lexington are on a 4-game winning run, scoring 16 and conceding 4

• At home, Lexington have won 11 of 20, averaging 2.25 goals per game

• FC Tulsa away: 6W 7D 7L in 20, scoring 1.3 per game

• Head-to-head: Lexington failed to score in all 3 meetings, most recent was a 0-0

• FC Tulsa's last 5: 1W 3D 1L, scoring 1.2 per game

My pick: Lexington home win.