Sarmiento Junin vs Atletico Tucuman Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Argentine league clash. Sarmiento Junin welcome Atletico Tucuman, and if you're after a game with two sides flying high, you might want to look elsewhere. Both are lingering in the bottom half early doors, but one stat jumps off the page and slaps you round the chops: Atletico Tucuman cannot buy a win on the road.

Sarmiento are sitting 19th with three points from their first three, courtesy of a 1-0 home win over Banfield. Since then, it's been a couple of narrow defeats – 1-0 away at Argentinos JRS and a 2-1 loss to the early pace-setters, Independ. Rivadavia. They're not exactly free-scoring, managing just 0.6 goals a game at home, but they're reasonably solid, conceding just one per game on their own patch. Their last ten show they can be a tough nut to crack, with clean sheets against Banfield and that famous 1-0 win at the mighty River Plate last October.

Now, let's talk about the visitors. Atletico Tucuman are 22nd with two measly points, both from home draws. Their away form is nothing short of a disaster. Zero wins in their last five on the road, and they're shipping goals for fun – 2.6 per game! Have a butcher's at their recent travels: a 3-1 tonking at Lanus, a 3-0 hiding at Independiente, and a 2-0 defeat at Instituto Cordoba. They are the definition of a soft touch away from home.

The head-to-head makes for interesting reading. Overall, Tucuman have the edge with five wins to Sarmiento's three. But crucially, at Sarmiento's gaff, it's a different story. The hosts have won three of the five meetings there, drawing one and losing just once. They clearly like playing this lot in front of their own fans.

So, what's the play here? The bookies have Sarmiento at 2.65 for the win. Given Tucuman's travel sickness and Sarmiento's decent home record against them, that looks a bit generous to me. Sarmiento know how to grind out a result at home, as the Banfield win showed. Tucuman look like they'd struggle to keep a clean sheet in an empty net at the moment when they're away.

Sure, Sarmiento aren't exactly Barcelona, and their goals are drying up a bit. But sometimes you don't need to be brilliant, you just need to be less rubbish than the other lot. And on current evidence, especially away from home, Atletico Tucuman are proper rubbish.

Key Points:

Atletico Tucuman have lost all of their last 5 away matches.

They concede a whopping 2.6 goals per game on their travels.

Sarmiento Junin have won 3 of their last 5 home games against this opponent.

Sarmiento's only win this season came at home (1-0 vs Banfield).

• The odds of 2.65 for a Sarmiento home win offer potential value against such a poor travelling side.

The Simple Verdict:

All the signs point one way. Sarmiento are at home against a team with a phobia of away wins and a defence that leaks like a sieve on the road. It might not be pretty, but the value shout is for the hosts to bag three points.