Gaziantep FK vs Fatih Karagümrük Prediction

Sunday morning in the Süper Lig and we've got a proper relegation six-pointer... well, for one of them anyway. Gaziantep FK welcome basement boys Fatih Karagümrük to town, and if the hosts can't get three points here, they might want to have a word with themselves.

Let's have a look at the form book, shall we? Gaziantep are sitting pretty in 9th with 29 points – not setting the world alight, but safe enough. The problem is they've been on the slide lately. Four losses in their last five league games, including a proper pasting (0-4) against Fenerbahçe in the cup and a 3-0 hiding away at Kocaelispor. Mind you, they did manage a cracking 1-1 draw against league leaders Galatasaray not long ago, so there's still a bit of fight in the old dog.

Now then, Fatih Karagümrük. Blimey, where do we start? Bottom of the pile with just 13 points from 24 games, having lost 17 of them. Their away record is shocking – lost two-thirds of their last six on the road, shipping two goals a game like it's going out of fashion. They did nick a 1-0 win against Antalyaspor recently and held Samsunspor to a 0-0 draw, so they're not completely useless, but they're as close as it gets.

The head-to-head makes interesting reading – dead level at four wins apiece with one draw in nine meetings. But Gaziantep won the reverse fixture 2-0 earlier this season, and historically these games tend to have a few goals (seven of the last nine went over 2.5).

Here's the maths bit: Gaziantep are averaging a goal a game at home recently, while Karagümrük are conceding two away. The visitors score 1.5 on the road but let's be honest, against a side 16 points above them, they'll do well to get a sniff. The goal expectancies suggest a fairly open game (1.50 vs 1.55), but with Karagümrük's defence being leakier than a sieve, the hosts should create plenty.

At 1.95 for the home win, there's a bit of value to be had. Yes, Gaziantep's form is patchy, but this is the bottom team we're talking about – a side that's lost more games than anyone else in the division. Sometimes you've just got to back the class difference, even when the favourites are stuttering.

Key Points:

• Gaziantep are 9th (29pts) vs Karagümrük 18th (13pts) – 16-point gap

• Karagümrük have lost 17 of 24 games and concede 2.0 goals per game away

• Gaziantep won the reverse fixture 2-0 earlier this season

• Seven of the last nine H2H meetings went over 2.5 goals

• Gaziantep's recent form is poor (1 win in last 5 league games) but they drew 1-1 with Galatasaray recently

• Home win at 1.95 offers value against the league's worst away side

Summary: Look, Gaziantep haven't been pulling up trees lately, but Karagümrük are absolutely dreadful. The hosts need to bounce back from that 4-0 cup embarrassment, and there's no better tonic than the team propping up the table. The 1.95 on a home win is fair value – not a screamer, but solid enough. Back Gaziantep to get the job done.