remo vs Internacional Prediction

Welcome, fellow underdog enthusiasts! Tonight we have a beautiful opportunity to back the little guy as Remo host Internacional in Serie A. The market has made Internacional the favourites at 2.30, but look a little closer and you'll find our plucky puppies from Belém are offering tremendous value at 3.20!

Let's talk about Remo first, because these are my kind of team. Unbeaten in nine of their last ten matches with a record of two wins and seven draws, they are simply impossible to put away. In Serie A, they've shown tremendous fighting spirit - battling to a thrilling 3-3 draw away at Atletico-MG and holding Mirassol to a 2-2 stalemate at home. Even their defeat was a narrow 0-2 loss at Vitoria. This is a side that doesn't know when they're beaten! At home, they're particularly dangerous, averaging two goals per game across their last ten home fixtures. They even come into this on the back of a confidence-boosting 3-2 victory away at Cametá.

Now, Internacional might be the bigger name with the bigger budget, but where's the evidence on the pitch? They're winless in Serie A with just one point from three games - sitting 19th in the table, below our underdogs! They've lost at home to both Atletico Paranaense (0-1) and Palmeiras (1-3), managing only a draw at Flamengo. Yes, they've been beating up on Ypiranga-RS and São Luiz in the Gaúcho state league, but this is Serie A, and here they've looked vulnerable, conceding in all three matches.

The goal expectancies tell the real story here - the model projects Remo at 1.38 and Internacional at just 1.25. That's practically a coin-flip match being priced as if one side is significantly superior! With Remo's incredible resilience (seven draws in ten games) and Internacional's inability to close out games, the value is screaming at us.

Key Points:

Remo are unbeaten in nine of their last ten matches across all competitions (2 wins, 7 draws, 1 loss)

Internacional have managed just one point from their opening three Serie A fixtures, losing twice at home

Remo have scored in both their Serie A home games this season (2-2 vs Mirassol)

Internacional have conceded in all three Serie A matches, shipping five goals total

Remo average 2.00 goals per game at home, while Internacional have struggled to impose themselves away in the league

The projected goal expectancies suggest a tight contest (1.38 vs 1.25), making the 3.20 on the home side exceptional value

Summary: Sometimes the market gets blinded by reputation, and this is one of those times! Remo have been harder to beat than Internacional in Serie A, they're playing at home where they score freely, and they have that wonderful underdog spirit. At 3.20, we're getting paid handsomely to back the little puppy against a favourite who simply hasn't shown up yet this season. Come on Remo, give us that first Serie A win!