Alanyaspor vs Eyüpspor Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this one. Alanyaspor at home to Eyüpspor in the Süper Lig. On paper, it's a no-brainer, innit? Alanyaspor sitting 10th, looking solid, while Eyüpspor are down in 16th, just three points off the drop zone. But football's never that simple, is it? Especially when you've got a proper bogey team involved.

First, the form guide. Alanyaspor have been the definition of hard to beat lately. Just one loss in their last ten – and that was a 2-3 thriller against the mighty Fenerbahçe. They've kept six clean sheets in that run, conceding only seven goals. That's proper defending. They even nicked a 1-0 win away at Trabzonspor in the cup. At home, they're steady: win 40%, draw 40%, lose 20%. They score about 1.6, concede about 1.0 per game at their place. They're organised, they're tough to break down, and they're picking up points.

Now, Eyüpspor. They've had a mixed bag. Three wins, four draws, three losses in their last ten. The worrying stat? Zero clean sheets. Not one. They've conceded in every single game. They drew 2-2 with Beşiktaş recently, which is a good result, but they also got thumped 3-0 by Rizespor and 3-0 by Fenerbahçe. On the road, it's even bleaker: just one win in four, scoring only a goal a game on average while letting in nearly two. They can score – they've netted in 8 of their last 10 – but keeping the other lot out? That's the problem.

And here's the kicker – the head-to-head. Blimey. In six meetings, Alanyaspor have never beaten Eyüpspor. Not once. Three draws, three losses. Goals? 7 for Alanyaspor, 13 against. It's a proper hoodoo. The last time they met, back in August, Eyüpspor won 2-1. So for all of Alanyaspor's good form, this lot have their number.

So what's gonna give? Alanyaspor are the better side right now, no question. They're tighter at the back, they're higher up the table, and they're at home. But Eyüpspor know how to get a result against them, and they usually find the net. The stats tell a story: Alanyaspor average more possession, better pass accuracy, and are more accurate with their shots. Eyüpspor, away from home, have a shot accuracy of just over 20% – that's not great, is it?

The bookies have Alanyaspor as strong favourites at 1.55. That's short, and given the history, it might be a bit too short for my liking. The value might lie elsewhere. Alanyaspor's games have seen Under 2.5 goals in six of their last ten. With their defence looking solid and Eyüpspor's attack not exactly firing on all cylinders away, this might not be a goal-fest.

Key Points:

Form: Alanyaspor are tough to beat (1 loss in 10). Eyüpspor can't keep a clean sheet (0 in 10).

Head-to-Head: Eyüpspor are Alanyaspor's bogey team – 6 games, 0 wins for Alanyaspor.

Defence vs Attack: Alanyaspor have a 60% clean sheet rate. Eyüpspor score in 80% of games but only average 1 goal per game on the road.

Recent Results: Alanyaspor's last loss was to Fenerbahçe. Eyüpspor's last away league game was a 3-0 defeat to Rizespor.

• The Odds: Home win is short at 1.55. The value might be in the goal markets.

The Verdict:

It's set up for Alanyaspor to finally break the curse. They're the better side in better form. But the price for a home win doesn't scream value to me with that history hanging over them. Instead, I'm leaning towards a tighter affair. Alanyaspor will be organised, Eyüpspor might struggle to create clear chances away from home. I fancy this to be a cagey one, maybe a 1-0 or 1-1 sort of game. So, I'm going for Under 2.5 Goals.