Valencia vs Alaves Prediction

Howzit my bru! It's that time again - Valencia vs Alaves this Sunday evening. Grab a cold one and fire up the braai because this La Liga relegation six-pointer has got me thinking we might see some lekker action at the Mestalla. Both teams are stuck in the bottom half with Valencia sitting 15th on 29 points and Alaves just two points behind in 16th, so there's plenty to play for as they try to avoid the drop zone drama.

Valencia have been showing some proper fighting spirit lately with 5 wins from their last 10 matches. That 1-0 victory against Osasuna last weekend was a solid performance, especially considering Osasuna have been picking up 1.90 points per game in their recent form. The boys also managed a cracking 2-0 away win against Levante and ground out a 1-0 win at Getafe. Sure, they took a 2-1 beating from Villarreal and got taught a lesson by Real Madrid (0-2 at home), but those are top-four sides. Against the strugglers, Valencia have been doing the business and keeping things tight at the back with 4 clean sheets in their last 10.

Alaves? Eish, bru, it's been a tough ride for the visitors. They've only managed 3 wins from their last 10 and their away form is about as convincing as a vegetarian at a braai. They're scoring just 0.80 goals per game on the road and have lost 60% of their recent away matches. That 2-0 defeat to Levante last time out was particularly worrying - Levante have only been managing 0.90 points per game, so losing to them suggests Alaves are operating on South African time ("just now" means never!) when it comes to picking up results away from home. They did manage draws against Girona (2-2) and Sevilla (1-1), but those were at home where they're more comfortable.

Looking at the head-to-head, Alaves actually has the historical edge with 5 wins to Valencia's 2, but the last meeting was a cagey 0-0 draw. Valencia have won 40% of their home games against Alaves, which isn't amazing but certainly better than Alaves' struggles on the road. The stats tell the story - Valencia are conceding just 1.10 goals per game recently versus Alaves' 1.60, and Valencia's trend is improving while Alaves are heading in the opposite direction.

The bookies have Valencia at 2.05 for the home win, and I'm liking that price given the form differential. Alaves might be taking more shots (12.9 vs 9.9) and having more possession (52.5% vs 48%), but Valencia have been more clinical when it matters and are facing a side that leaks goals away from home.

Key Points:

• Valencia have won 5 of their last 10 matches, including a solid 1-0 victory over in-form Osasuna (1.90 PPG)

• Alaves have lost 5 of their last 10 and struggle away from home, scoring just 0.80 goals per game on the road with 60% losses

• Valencia have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 10 games compared to Alaves' solitary clean sheet

• The last meeting ended 0-0, but Valencia's improving trend (20% confidence) suggests they're finding form at the right time

• Alaves' away record shows they concede 1.60 goals per game on the road while scoring less than a goal per game

Summary:

I'm backing the home side here. Valencia are showing signs of life under the lights at Mestalla, and Alaves' away form is drier than the Kalahari. At 2.05, there's decent value in a Valencia win - they're not quite ready to challenge for the top spots, but against this Alaves side that travels about as well as boerewors without a cooler box, they should have enough firepower to get the job done. Just don't expect a goal-fest - these two know how to grind when they need to.