Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng Prediction

Right, so we've got Chongqing Tongliang Long hosting Shandong Luneng on 11 October in the Super League, and let me tell you, the numbers point one way pretty clearly.

Shandong Luneng have been in proper form of late. In their last five games they've picked up two wins, a draw and two losses, scoring 7 and conceding 9. Their last ten across all venues tells the same story: 4 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses, averaging 1.4 points per game and 1.3 goals a game. That's a team that's clicking. And their away record over 20 games is 9 wins, 4 draws, 7 losses, scoring 1.9 per game. That's a solid away record, and it's the one that matters here. The head-to-head backs it up too. In the last 12 months, Shandong Luneng beat Chongqing 3–1 at their own ground back in May. And if you go back to the historical meeting at Chongqing's ground in 2024, Shandong won 6–3. So in both meetings, Shandong have won, and both went over 2.5 goals. The head-to-head is dated, but the recent meeting within the last year is firmly in Shandong's favour.

Now look at Chongqing Tongliang Long. Their last five is 0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses. They've lost their last two, scoring just 1 goal and conceding 4. In their last ten they've managed 1 win, 3 draws and 6 losses, averaging 0.6 points per game and 0.7 goals. That's not a team that's in the business. Yes, their home record over 20 games is 7 wins, 7 draws, 6 losses, but those 20 games span 13 months, so the older results are diluting what's actually happening right now. The matchup table shows Shandong averaging 1.9 goals per game away compared to Chongqing's 1.1 at home, and Shandong's points per game away is 1.55 to Chongqing's 1.4 at home. In the latest 10 games, Shandong are averaging 1.4 points per game to Chongqing's 0.6. That's a big gap in current form.

Now, the counter-argument: Chongqing's home record isn't a disaster. Seven wins from 20 at home, and they've kept 9 clean sheets. They've also failed to score in only 6 of those 20 home games. And Shandong's away record does show they concede 1.75 per game, so they're not bulletproof on the road. Plus, Shandong's last game was a 1–1 draw at home with a red card in the 29th minute, so they're not flying. Chongqing have also drawn 7 of their 20 home games, which means they can grind out a result even when they're not at their best.

But here's the thing, boet: Chongqing have lost their last two, they've failed to score in three of their last five, and their points per game over the last ten is 0.6. That's not a team that's going to hang on for a draw at home. Shandong have the form, the head-to-head edge, and the away record to back it up. I rate Shandong's chance of winning at around 45%, which sits comfortably above the market's 36.76% implied probability. There's value here.

Key Points:

• Shandong Luneng won both meetings against Chongqing Tongliang Long (3–1 in May 2026, 6–3 in 2024)

• Chongqing have lost their last two games, scoring 1 and conceding 4

• Shandong's away record: 9W 4D 7L in 20 games, averaging 1.9 goals per game

• Chongqing's last 10: 1W 3D 6L, 0.6 points per game

• Both head-to-head meetings went over 2.5 goals

My pick: away win for Shandong Luneng at 2.72.