Verona vs Udinese Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Serie A clash. Verona are propping up the table, stone last with just 14 points from 21 games. Only two wins all season tells you everything you need to know. Udinese, on the other hand, are sitting pretty in 10th with 26 points. On paper, it's a no-brainer, but football's never that simple, is it?

Verona's form is, to put it politely, a bit rubbish. In their last ten, they've won two, drawn two, and lost six. At home, it's even worse – they've lost four of their last five on their own patch, conceding a whopping two goals a game on average. They shipped three to Torino and Bologna, and even let in two against Parma. The only bright spots were a 3-1 win over a decent Atalanta side and a gutsy 2-2 draw away at Napoli. So they can score – they've netted in four of their last five at home – but keeping the ball out of their own net is a real problem.

Udinese are a classic mid-table side – capable of brilliance one week and baffling the next. They've won three, drawn two, and lost five in their last ten. Away from home, they've won two of their last five, including a good 2-1 victory at Torino, but also got thumped 5-1 by a struggling Fiorentina. They score about a goal a game on the road but let in nearly two. So they're not exactly watertight either.

Now, here's the funny bit. When these two meet, history says it's usually Verona's day. They've won three of the last nine meetings, drawing five and only losing once. The last game back in August ended 1-1. So Verona seems to raise their game for this fixture, even if they can't buy a win against anyone else.

So what's the play? Looking at the numbers, both teams are leaky at the back and can find the net. Verona concedes two a game at home, Udinese concedes 1.8 on the road. Verona scores 1.2 at home, Udinese scores one away. The odds for Both Teams to Score - Yes are sitting at a nice even 2.00. Given the defensive records and the fact both sides have scored in three of Verona's last five home games and two of Udinese's last five away, I fancy the chances of both nets bulging.

Key Points:

Verona are bottom, with a dreadful home record (1 win in last 5).

Udinese are inconsistent but sit 12 points and 10 places above their hosts.

Head-to-head heavily favours Verona (3 wins, 5 draws in last 9).

Verona's defence is porous, conceding 2.0 goals per game at home.

Udinese are not much tighter, conceding 1.8 goals per game away.

Both teams have scored in 60% of Verona's last 10 games and 50% of Udinese's.

All things considered, this has the makings of a proper, end-to-end scrap. Verona will be desperate for points at home, and Udinese will see this as a chance to climb the table. I can't see either side keeping a clean sheet with the defences on show. The value, for me, lies in backing goals at both ends.