Almeria vs Granada CF Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this one. It's Almeria hosting Granada in the Segunda, and on paper, it's a bit of a mismatch. Almeria are sitting pretty in 4th, on 32 points and dreaming of promotion. Granada, meanwhile, are down in 18th on 21 points, looking over their shoulder. But as we all know, the table don't tell the whole story, does it?

Almeria's form has hit a bit of a bump. They've lost their last two league games, 1-2 at home to Burgos and 1-2 away at Malaga. Before that, they were flying, smashing three past Cadiz and Eibar at home. So they can score, no doubt about it – they've bagged 18 goals in their last ten. But they've also conceded in six of those ten games. At home, they're usually tighter, letting in just 0.75 goals a game on average, but they've still only kept four clean sheets in that ten-game run.

Granada are the classic 'hard to beat' side at the moment. They've only lost twice in their last ten, but they've drawn four. They're not exactly free-scoring lately – their last three league games have seen just one goal scored (a 1-1 draw with Albacete). But don't let that fool you. They've shown they can get a result against anyone, drawing with the league leaders Racing Santander (2-2) and beating a decent Cultural Leonesa side 1-0 away. They score 1.67 goals a game on their travels, so they carry a threat.

When these two get together, it's usually a good watch. The head-to-head is dead level – three wins each and three draws. More importantly for us, both teams have scored in six of the last nine meetings, and over 2.5 goals has landed five times. The last time they met, back in April, Granada won 3-1. At Almeria's gaff, the hosts have never lost to Granada in the stats we've got (two wins, two draws).

So what's the play? The bookies have Almeria as favourites at 1.70, which feels about right given the league positions. But Granada are stubborn, and Almeria's defence has been breached in 60% of their recent games. Granada's games see both teams score a whopping 70% of the time. For me, the value isn't in trying to pick a winner here – it's in backing both teams to find the net. The odds for 'Yes' are 1.83, and given the history and the recent trends, I fancy that's a bit generous.

Key Points:

Almeria are 4th but have lost their last two league matches.

Granada are 18th but are tough to beat, with only 2 losses in their last 10.

Head-to-head is perfectly balanced: 3 wins each, 3 draws.

Both teams have scored in 6 of the last 9 meetings between these sides.

Almeria's games see both teams score 60% of the time; Granada's is even higher at 70%.

Granada score an average of 1.67 goals per game on the road.

Summary: This has the makings of a proper, tense affair. Almeria will be desperate to get back to winning ways in front of their own fans, while Granada need points to climb away from trouble. I can see both teams having their moments and getting on the scoresheet. The smart money, for me, is on goals at both ends.

My Tip: Both Teams to Score - Yes