Southend vs Truro City Prediction

Tuesday night under the lights at Roots Hall, and we've got a proper mismatch on our hands. Southend, pushing for the playoffs, host Truro City who are propping up the entire National League table like a wonky three-legged stool.

Now, the Shrimpers have been a bit up and down lately, I'll give you that. They took a proper pasting from Boreham Wood at home last week (0-2, not pretty), but before that they were banging them in for fun - 5-1 against Morecambe and 4-1 against Eastleigh at Roots Hall. That's nine goals in two home games against sides around Truro's level. When Southend turn up against the lesser lights, they tend to put them to the sword.

Truro, bless 'em, are having a nightmare. Bottom of the pile with just 24 points from 34 games, and they've lost seven of their last ten. Their only win in that run was a 2-1 squeaker at Morecambe - and let's be honest, Morecambe are only just above them in the relegation scrap. Away from home, Truro have been about as threatening as a declawed kitten, scoring just 0.6 goals per game on their travels and shipping 1.6.

The head-to-head makes grim reading for the Cornish lads too. Southend have played them twice this season and won both - 4-0 away and 1-0 at home. That's five goals scored, zero conceded. Clean sheets both times.

I know what you're thinking - 1.36 for a home win is shorter than a London summer. But sometimes short is right. Truro are dreadful, Southend need the points to keep playoff hopes alive, and the Shrimpers have already put four past these lot this season. The maths says Southend win this about 78 times out of 100, which gives us a sniff of value at these odds.

Key Points:

• Southend have won both meetings this season 4-0 and 1-0 without conceding

• Truro are bottom of the National League with only 6 wins all season

• Southend average 3 goals per game in their last 3 home matches

• Truro have lost 7 of their last 10 games and kept zero clean sheets in that run

• Southend sit 8th, just four points off the playoffs with games in hand on most rivals

Summary: It's not going to make you rich overnight at 1.36, but Southend should cruise past the league's basement boys. Truro simply haven't got the firepower or the defensive solidity to trouble a side that put five past Morecambe and four past Eastleigh at home. Back the Shrimpers to get the job done.