Reims vs Montpellier Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Ligue 2 clash between Reims and Montpellier. Two sides sitting pretty in the table, just two points separating them, but blimey, they couldn't be more different in form lately!

Reims have been a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde outfit recently. They're banging in goals for fun - 2.2 per game over their last ten matches - but they're also letting them in at the other end (1.5 conceded). Their home form's been proper dodgy too, winning just one of their last four on their own patch. They did put six past Boulogne in their travels, but then got turned over 1-2 at home by Dunkerque. Inconsistent doesn't quite cover it!

Montpellier, on the other hand, are looking solid as a rock. Seven wins from their last ten games, and defensively they've been absolutely superb - only letting in 0.7 goals per game with six clean sheets. Their away form's been particularly impressive, winning three of their last four on the road and keeping it tight at the back.

When these two have met in the past, it's usually been a tight affair. Five draws from nine meetings tells its own story, and the last time they played each other, it finished 0-0. Reims have a shocking home record against Montpellier too - just one win in five attempts.

Looking at the stats, Montpellier's defensive record (60% clean sheets) against Reims' leaky home defence (conceding 1.75 per game at home) suggests we're in for a low-scoring game. The goal expectancies back this up, pointing towards around 2.5 goals total.

The bookies have got Reims as slight favourites at 1.95, but given their home form and Montpellier's defensive solidity, that looks a bit generous to me. Sometimes the best bet is looking at the goals market rather than trying to pick a winner in these tight matches.

Key Points:

• Montpellier in much better form (2.2 PPG vs Reims' 1.7 PPG)

• Montpellier's defensive record is excellent (0.7 goals conceded per game)

• Reims' home form has been poor (25% win rate in last 4 home games)

• Head-to-head history shows 5 draws from 9 meetings

• Last meeting ended 0-0

• Montpellier have kept 6 clean sheets in their last 10 games

Given Montpellier's defensive solidity and Reims' struggles at home, combined with the historical tendency for draws between these sides, I'm leaning towards a low-scoring affair. The value looks to be on the under 2.5 goals market here.