Padova vs Mantova Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Serie B mid-table tussle. Padova, sitting 10th, welcome 19th-placed Mantova for a bit of a grudge match. The last time they met, back in November, Mantova nicked a 1-0 win on their own patch. I reckon Padova will be well up for putting that right in front of their own fans.

First, the league table don't lie. Padova have got nine more points than Mantova and have generally been the more reliable side. Their recent results tell a story of being hard to beat, especially at home. They've drawn three of their last five at their gaff, including 1-1 with Sampdoria and Cesena. But they also just turned over a decent Modena side 2-0, which shows they can get the job done when it matters. Mantova, on the other hand, have been having a right old struggle on their travels. They've lost three of their last five away, shipping three at Venezia and Cesena. The only bright spark was a 0-0 draw at Carrarese, but let's be honest, that's not exactly setting the world alight.

Now, let's talk goals, or the lack of 'em. Padova average exactly one goal a game at home. Mantova average a measly 0.8 on the road. When Mantova go away, they tend to leave the door open at the back, conceding 1.6 per game. But here's the key bit for me: looking at the recent scorelines, both teams scoring has been a rare event when Mantova are the visitors. In their last five away trips, both teams have found the net just once. They've failed to score in four of those five games. Padova aren't exactly free-scoring either, but they've kept it tight recently, with clean sheets in two of their last ten.

The head-to-head record favours Padova overall, but that recent 1-0 loss will be in their minds. I fancy Padova to control this one. They average more shots at home than Mantova do away, and they'll be itching to make amends. Mantova's only win in their last six league games was that victory over Padova, and since then it's been a bit of a slide.

Key Points:

Revenge Mission: Padova lost 1-0 in the reverse fixture and will be motivated to set the record straight at home.

Mantova's Travel Sickness: The away side have lost 60% of their last five away games, conceding an average of 1.6 goals.

Clean Sheet Potential: Mantova have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 away matches.

Home Comforts (Sort of): Padova are unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 home games, even if 3 of those were draws.

• Low-Scoring Trend: Padova's last 5 home games have averaged 2.2 goals, with 4 finishing with Under 2.5 goals.

The Simple Verdict:

This has got a 1-0 or maybe a 1-1 written all over it. Padova are the better side and are at home, but they do love a draw. Mantova are poor on the road and struggle to score away from home. The value, for me, isn't in backing the Padova win at skinny odds, but in the likelihood that one, or both, teams draw a blank. The stats scream that this won't be a goal-fest and that Mantova might not trouble the scorer.

My Tip: BOTH_TEAMS_TO_SCORE_NO