1. FC Köln vs Bayern München Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this one. Köln hosting Bayern Munich – it's the classic David vs Goliath, but let's be honest, Goliath's been smashing everyone lately.

Köln are sitting 11th, which ain't terrible, but their form tells a different story. Two wins in their last ten, and not a single clean sheet to their name. They're shipping goals for fun at home – 2.2 on average. They just drew 2-2 with bottom-of-the-table Heidenheim, and before that lost 1-0 at home to Union Berlin. They even lost 4-1 to Gladbach away. Their defence has more holes than a sieve.

Now, let's talk about the visitors. Bayern are top of the league, unbeaten, and they just put eight – EIGHT – past Wolfsburg. They're averaging four goals a game. Four! That's ridiculous. Even on the road, they're banging in 3.6 per match. Their only recent blip was a draw with Mainz, but they've been absolutely ruthless otherwise, smashing Stuttgart 5-0 and Heidenheim 4-0.

The head-to-head makes for grim reading if you're a Köln fan. Bayern have won seven of the last nine meetings. The most recent one? Just a couple of months ago in the cup – Bayern won 4-1 at Köln's ground. Same story, different day.

So, what's the bet? The odds for a Bayern win are a measly 1.30. That's probably going to happen, but there's no fun in that for a punter looking for value. The real value, in my book, is in the goals market.

Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.28. Now, think about it. Bayern's games are averaging over five goals. Köln's games are averaging 3.5. Put them together, and you've got a recipe for a goal-fest. Köln will probably score – they've netted in 8 of their last 10 – but they'll definitely concede. Probably a lot.

Key Points:

Bayern are in devastating form, scoring for fun (8-1 vs Wolfsburg last time out).

Köln have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 10 matches.

The last H2H meeting ended 4-1 to Bayern at this very venue.

Bayern average 4.0 goals per game; Köln concede 2.0 per game at home.

• The goal expectancy models point to a high-scoring affair (over 4 total goals expected).

Summary: This has all the makings of a Bayern masterclass. Köln might get a consolation, but the Bavarian machine should have far too much firepower. The smart money isn't on who wins, but on there being plenty of goals. Over 2.5 goals looks a stone-cold banker.